[BostonCard]

Finally, I know this could change and infection trends could pick up again but .... 800K?  I'd like to hear the argument for how we get there from here (44K and death rate dropping).

I don't see any evidence that the daily date of death has started to come down.  There were 2800 deaths yesterday, which is the most deaths in a single day in the US.  There does seem to be some stabilization in terms of the number of deaths per day in April, with numbers ranging from 1500 to 2800 the entire month, with a lot of noise.  At the very least you can say it is no longer increasing exponentially.

I agree that 800k looks unlikely, but you could see a situation where we we stabilize the death rate but can't bring it down and continue seeing about 2000 deaths a day for the next year.  My admittedly wishful thinking is that having stabilized the death rate will slowly come down over the next two months down into the hundreds.  That gets you to 100,000 cases in the acute phase, and maybe another 50 to 100K over the next year.

BC

[BostonCard]

Finally, I know this could change and infection trends could pick up again but .... 800K?  I'd like to hear the argument for how we get there from here (44K and death rate dropping).

I don't see any evidence that the daily date of death has started to come down.  There were 2800 deaths yesterday, which is the most deaths in a single day in the US.  There does seem to be some stabilization in terms of the number of deaths per day in April, with numbers ranging from 1500 to 2800 the entire month, with a lot of noise.  At the very least you can say it is no longer increasing exponentially.

I agree that 800k looks unlikely, but you could see a situation where we we stabilize the death rate but can't bring it down and continue seeing about 2000 deaths a day for the next year.  My admittedly wishful thinking is that having stabilized the death rate will slowly come down over the next two months down into the hundreds.  That gets you to 100,000 cases in the acute phase, and maybe another 50 to 100K over the next year.

BC