04-22-2020, 10:16 AM
This was interesting, and I hope we investigate more, but not too surprising.
Testing swabs from people Jan-Feb, they found 2 in 2800 had Covid. Low enough that it’s clear Covid wasn’t circulating widely last fall (the previous theory du jour) — but it wasn’t zero.
If 2 In 2,900 flu swabs in the Bay Area tested positive, maybe dozens, maybe a few hundred people had it early this year.
It is interesting that the prevalence stayed so low early in the year, then shot up so quickly in March. If that person in January had spread it widely, things would have been worse. It’s also possible the early cases self quarantined better, or weren’t social people (I wonder of they’ll provide more details on the two deaths).
Testing swabs from people Jan-Feb, they found 2 in 2800 had Covid. Low enough that it’s clear Covid wasn’t circulating widely last fall (the previous theory du jour) — but it wasn’t zero.
If 2 In 2,900 flu swabs in the Bay Area tested positive, maybe dozens, maybe a few hundred people had it early this year.
It is interesting that the prevalence stayed so low early in the year, then shot up so quickly in March. If that person in January had spread it widely, things would have been worse. It’s also possible the early cases self quarantined better, or weren’t social people (I wonder of they’ll provide more details on the two deaths).
