[Snorlax94]

It is interesting that the prevalence stayed so low early in the year, then shot up so quickly in March. If that person in January had spread it widely, things would have been worse. It’s also possible the early cases self quarantined better, or weren’t social people (I wonder of they’ll provide more details on the two deaths).

That's what exponential growth looks like.  The number of cases creep up slowly, almost indistinguishably from background, and then will shoot up seemingly coming out from nowhere.

BC

Yes and no. Ro is an average. If the Ro is 3, it does not mean each infected person will spread it to exactly 3 people. Some will spread it to 0 people, some will spread it to hundreds or thousands. Had the first cases attended concerts, soirees, ski lodges, and mega churches in late January, things could have been much worse.

“‘Patient One,’ Super-spreader
When a 38-year-old man went to the emergency room at a hospital in Codogno, a small town in the Lodi province of Lombardy, with severe flu symptoms on Feb. 18, the case did not set off alarms.
The patient declined to be hospitalized and went home. He got sicker and returned to the hospital a few hours later and was admitted to a general medicine ward. On Feb. 20, he went into intensive care, where he tested positive for the virus.
The man, who became known as Patient One, had had a busy month. He attended at least three dinners, played soccer and ran with a team, all apparently while contagious and without heavy symptoms.

Mr. Ricciardi said Italy had the bad luck of having a super spreader in a densely populated and dynamic area who went to the hospital not once, but twice, infecting hundreds of people, including doctors and nurses.

“He was incredibly active,” Mr. Ricciardi said.“

[Snorlax94]

It is interesting that the prevalence stayed so low early in the year, then shot up so quickly in March. If that person in January had spread it widely, things would have been worse. It’s also possible the early cases self quarantined better, or weren’t social people (I wonder of they’ll provide more details on the two deaths).

That's what exponential growth looks like.  The number of cases creep up slowly, almost indistinguishably from background, and then will shoot up seemingly coming out from nowhere.

BC

Yes and no. Ro is an average. If the Ro is 3, it does not mean each infected person will spread it to exactly 3 people. Some will spread it to 0 people, some will spread it to hundreds or thousands. Had the first cases attended concerts, soirees, ski lodges, and mega churches in late January, things could have been much worse.

“‘Patient One,’ Super-spreader
When a 38-year-old man went to the emergency room at a hospital in Codogno, a small town in the Lodi province of Lombardy, with severe flu symptoms on Feb. 18, the case did not set off alarms.
The patient declined to be hospitalized and went home. He got sicker and returned to the hospital a few hours later and was admitted to a general medicine ward. On Feb. 20, he went into intensive care, where he tested positive for the virus.
The man, who became known as Patient One, had had a busy month. He attended at least three dinners, played soccer and ran with a team, all apparently while contagious and without heavy symptoms.

Mr. Ricciardi said Italy had the bad luck of having a super spreader in a densely populated and dynamic area who went to the hospital not once, but twice, infecting hundreds of people, including doctors and nurses.

“He was incredibly active,” Mr. Ricciardi said.“