04-22-2020, 12:01 PM
I know getting the virus can be tough, but I am less worried about getting the virus than dying from the virus.
Given death is the ultimate metric, I believe that is why that CDC Director noted the second wave could be more devastating.
It doesn't really matter though as long as it is similar in scale universities across the USA will be in a bad place.
At this point it definitely seems probable that a national university opening up in August or early September will likely get students from hot spot locations. CSUF can start a quarter with "Zoom", do a wait and see, and then have everyone go to classes mid-term because students live off campus and most are able to drive to campus from the family homes. Stanford will not enjoy those logistics benefits. If Stanford is "Zoom University 2.0" to start a quarter it will likely need to stay that way for the full quarter.
Same logic would apply for the rest of the year if there is a large second wave outbreak in November or December.
Open universities in theory could test students and faculty many times each term, but no USA state has enough capacity to test students at that level. Testing students and faculty at thousands of colleges and universities multiple times a month would mean some other populations are tested less often, or not at all. I think testing the millions of college students sounds great, but I would rather test doctors, nurses, police officers, and grocery store workers if testing is limited in any way.
A private company can acquire tests for its employees, but a university testing just its faculty and staff would probably be risking a PR problem that would last for generations.
Just map it out and becomes clear it will come down to testing capability, presumably with some form of test at home technology available to almost every citizen, for a national level college to open in 2020-2021. Oh, and that test would likely be assembled in China. Hard to see China prioritizing the USA even if an at home test kit is created, so it probably would need to be a test easily produced in the millions BEFORE early September.
I don't have a child in the class of 2024, but if I did we would be exploring Gap Year options now. The only caveat to that is if my Class of 2024 child was on the waitlist for their dream school. If they were invited I would tell them do join because this year with COVID19, a bad economy and now immigration restrictions a lot of schools may go much deeper into the waitlist than they anticipated in February. So join the waitlist and get ready to do the "Zoom University" because it might be a way to get into that school.
Given death is the ultimate metric, I believe that is why that CDC Director noted the second wave could be more devastating.
It doesn't really matter though as long as it is similar in scale universities across the USA will be in a bad place.
At this point it definitely seems probable that a national university opening up in August or early September will likely get students from hot spot locations. CSUF can start a quarter with "Zoom", do a wait and see, and then have everyone go to classes mid-term because students live off campus and most are able to drive to campus from the family homes. Stanford will not enjoy those logistics benefits. If Stanford is "Zoom University 2.0" to start a quarter it will likely need to stay that way for the full quarter.
Same logic would apply for the rest of the year if there is a large second wave outbreak in November or December.
Open universities in theory could test students and faculty many times each term, but no USA state has enough capacity to test students at that level. Testing students and faculty at thousands of colleges and universities multiple times a month would mean some other populations are tested less often, or not at all. I think testing the millions of college students sounds great, but I would rather test doctors, nurses, police officers, and grocery store workers if testing is limited in any way.
A private company can acquire tests for its employees, but a university testing just its faculty and staff would probably be risking a PR problem that would last for generations.
Just map it out and becomes clear it will come down to testing capability, presumably with some form of test at home technology available to almost every citizen, for a national level college to open in 2020-2021. Oh, and that test would likely be assembled in China. Hard to see China prioritizing the USA even if an at home test kit is created, so it probably would need to be a test easily produced in the millions BEFORE early September.
I don't have a child in the class of 2024, but if I did we would be exploring Gap Year options now. The only caveat to that is if my Class of 2024 child was on the waitlist for their dream school. If they were invited I would tell them do join because this year with COVID19, a bad economy and now immigration restrictions a lot of schools may go much deeper into the waitlist than they anticipated in February. So join the waitlist and get ready to do the "Zoom University" because it might be a way to get into that school.