[magnus]

The next 6 days gave us another 15,000 (35,000 total) deaths. We doubled in 9 days. Some of these were the extra New York deaths that got added in. 
One way or another we will obviously go way past 60,000.

I think we'll go past 60K too, but I don't think we'll go _way_ past (at least not at the August date that the IMHE model, which the WH seems to quote, projects.).  I would have guessed more in the 70-90k range, until this newly added uncertainty with how states are going to let up on their restrictions.  The other thing to consider is that while most people on here are extra sensitive to a second wave, I wouldn't be surprised if a good chunk of people in America are seeing this all as being over in a couple weeks.  Or at least, mostly back to normal.  That's a bit worrisome.

We're going "way past" 60K. We'll hit 60K next week.

I think we'll hit a minimum of 220k - 320k.  1 mm - 2 mm if medical breakdown occurs or if large states reopen early.  Estimates don't include suicides or other deaths indirectly caused by COVID and/or our collective response to it.

Just to clarify, I was talking about deaths by August 1st, which was the IMHE (And presumably the government's) projection cutoff.  I sure hope we don't hit 220K by then.  That would mean 175k deaths in 3 months and a week.  Or no decrease of our current rate.

And by way past, I was thinking of 2x as way past.  I'm still thinking by Aug 1st, we'll be under 120k (and hopefully 100k). 

I did see that IMHE did change their projection of deaths from 60K to 65K on Tuesday.  That's not a positive indicator.

[magnus]

The next 6 days gave us another 15,000 (35,000 total) deaths. We doubled in 9 days. Some of these were the extra New York deaths that got added in. 
One way or another we will obviously go way past 60,000.

I think we'll go past 60K too, but I don't think we'll go _way_ past (at least not at the August date that the IMHE model, which the WH seems to quote, projects.).  I would have guessed more in the 70-90k range, until this newly added uncertainty with how states are going to let up on their restrictions.  The other thing to consider is that while most people on here are extra sensitive to a second wave, I wouldn't be surprised if a good chunk of people in America are seeing this all as being over in a couple weeks.  Or at least, mostly back to normal.  That's a bit worrisome.

We're going "way past" 60K. We'll hit 60K next week.

I think we'll hit a minimum of 220k - 320k.  1 mm - 2 mm if medical breakdown occurs or if large states reopen early.  Estimates don't include suicides or other deaths indirectly caused by COVID and/or our collective response to it.

Just to clarify, I was talking about deaths by August 1st, which was the IMHE (And presumably the government's) projection cutoff.  I sure hope we don't hit 220K by then.  That would mean 175k deaths in 3 months and a week.  Or no decrease of our current rate.

And by way past, I was thinking of 2x as way past.  I'm still thinking by Aug 1st, we'll be under 120k (and hopefully 100k). 

I did see that IMHE did change their projection of deaths from 60K to 65K on Tuesday.  That's not a positive indicator.