[BostonCard]

Meanwhile, can anyone understand how Sweden's chief epidemiologist can substantiate his claim of near-herd immunity in Stockholm? What are they doing differently that enables them to have a higher prevalence rate than NYC with a much, much lower IFR?

Per the article:

Tegnell said sampling and modeling data indicated that 20% of Stockholm’s population is already immune to the virus, and that “in a few weeks’ time we might reach herd immunity and we believe that is why we’re seeing a slow decline in cases, in spite of sampling (testing for the coronavirus) more and more.”

20% immunity is comparable to what New York City has seen so far.  The Stockholm region has a population of about 2 million, so if the number is correct, 400,000 have been infected.  Total deaths in the region have been 1128 for an IFR of 0.03.  That's plausible, but perhaps a bit lower than one might expect.

BC

[BostonCard]

Meanwhile, can anyone understand how Sweden's chief epidemiologist can substantiate his claim of near-herd immunity in Stockholm? What are they doing differently that enables them to have a higher prevalence rate than NYC with a much, much lower IFR?

Per the article:

Tegnell said sampling and modeling data indicated that 20% of Stockholm’s population is already immune to the virus, and that “in a few weeks’ time we might reach herd immunity and we believe that is why we’re seeing a slow decline in cases, in spite of sampling (testing for the coronavirus) more and more.”

20% immunity is comparable to what New York City has seen so far.  The Stockholm region has a population of about 2 million, so if the number is correct, 400,000 have been infected.  Total deaths in the region have been 1128 for an IFR of 0.03.  That's plausible, but perhaps a bit lower than one might expect.

BC