[Farm93]

It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.

Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.

That's not completely accurate.   The Obama administration had updated the pandemic response playbook AND updated the incoming Trump team on that playbook.   Obama even gave a speech in 2015 (I believe) noting that a global pandemic was one of the USA's biggest concerns. 

Members of the Obama incoming and outgoing transition teams have explained global pandemic readiness was very high on the list of threats to national security.    I am confident Joseph Biden will share those transition details with the USA voters over the next 6 months.

There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics.  They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness.   I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.

I don't think Bush or Obama would have done any better than Angela Merkel has done with Germany.   My guess is many deaths would have happened for any POTUS as too many in the USA would just assume the virus would be stopped by the distance like SARS and MERS.   COVID19 initial symptoms look much like the common flu, so it had the stealthiness required to invade the USA.  However I believe POTUS43 & POTUS44 would have both been quicker to get testing up and running, like we are seeing in Germany now, since testing was key in both teams' playbooks.

I think Germany was aided by an easily identifiable first cluster, as was South Korea.  I'm not going further on comparison of the Administrations after Bush. I have read criticism of Obama as well. But everything comes through the political filter these days. It'll be a long time before accurate history is written about all this. 

I'm also a bit skeptical of the testing reports. As I read the posts here about testing issues (which are not my area of expertise), it seems it's a lot harder to develop reliable tests than anyone guessed. If Germany and/or South Korea had a test that is surefire, I imagine it would be all around the world by now. But it isn't. So we shall see what we shall see.

The Washington Nursing Homes wasn't an obvious cluster????
The cruise ships don't count either?
And South Korea's first known case was on the same day as the USA's first known case at least until this week.
The USA just didn't aggressively test and trace those initial clues like Germany and South Korea apparently both did.

Sucks to be us sheltering in place until May or June, but that's the price we are all paying for our sluggish response and multi-week hubris and denial from Pennsylvania Ave, "Main Street" and even Wall Street.

---

There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics.  They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness.   I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.

Could you post a link to a version of these playbooks? I would like to give them a read.

Ask and you shall receive.  The Obama Playbook is the 69 page document at the top of this politico article.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25...cil-149285

[Farm93]

It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.

Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.

That's not completely accurate.   The Obama administration had updated the pandemic response playbook AND updated the incoming Trump team on that playbook.   Obama even gave a speech in 2015 (I believe) noting that a global pandemic was one of the USA's biggest concerns. 

Members of the Obama incoming and outgoing transition teams have explained global pandemic readiness was very high on the list of threats to national security.    I am confident Joseph Biden will share those transition details with the USA voters over the next 6 months.

There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics.  They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness.   I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.

I don't think Bush or Obama would have done any better than Angela Merkel has done with Germany.   My guess is many deaths would have happened for any POTUS as too many in the USA would just assume the virus would be stopped by the distance like SARS and MERS.   COVID19 initial symptoms look much like the common flu, so it had the stealthiness required to invade the USA.  However I believe POTUS43 & POTUS44 would have both been quicker to get testing up and running, like we are seeing in Germany now, since testing was key in both teams' playbooks.

I think Germany was aided by an easily identifiable first cluster, as was South Korea.  I'm not going further on comparison of the Administrations after Bush. I have read criticism of Obama as well. But everything comes through the political filter these days. It'll be a long time before accurate history is written about all this. 

I'm also a bit skeptical of the testing reports. As I read the posts here about testing issues (which are not my area of expertise), it seems it's a lot harder to develop reliable tests than anyone guessed. If Germany and/or South Korea had a test that is surefire, I imagine it would be all around the world by now. But it isn't. So we shall see what we shall see.

The Washington Nursing Homes wasn't an obvious cluster????
The cruise ships don't count either?
And South Korea's first known case was on the same day as the USA's first known case at least until this week.
The USA just didn't aggressively test and trace those initial clues like Germany and South Korea apparently both did.

Sucks to be us sheltering in place until May or June, but that's the price we are all paying for our sluggish response and multi-week hubris and denial from Pennsylvania Ave, "Main Street" and even Wall Street.

---

There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics.  They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness.   I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.

Could you post a link to a version of these playbooks? I would like to give them a read.

Ask and you shall receive.  The Obama Playbook is the 69 page document at the top of this politico article.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25...cil-149285