[Genuine Realist]

[quote="Genuine Realist" pid='278281' dateline='1587669199']
It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.

Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.

That's not completely accurate.   The Obama administration had updated the pandemic response playbook AND updated the incoming Trump team on that playbook.   Obama even gave a speech in 2015 (I believe) noting that a global pandemic was one of the USA's biggest concerns. 

Members of the Obama incoming and outgoing transition teams have explained global pandemic readiness was very high on the list of threats to national security.    I am confident Joseph Biden will share those transition details with the USA voters over the next 6 months.

There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics.  They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness.   I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.

I don't think Bush or Obama would have done any better than Angela Merkel has done with Germany.   My guess is many deaths would have happened for any POTUS as too many in the USA would just assume the virus would be stopped by the distance like SARS and MERS.   COVID19 initial symptoms look much like the common flu, so it had the stealthiness required to invade the USA.  However I believe POTUS43 & POTUS44 would have both been quicker to get testing up and running, like we are seeing in Germany now, since testing was key in both teams' playbooks.

I think Germany was aided by an easily identifiable first cluster, as was South Korea.  I'm not going further on comparison of the Administrations after Bush. I have read criticism of Obama as well. But everything comes through the political filter these days. It'll be a long time before accurate history is written about all this. 

I'm also a bit skeptical of the testing reports. As I read the posts here about testing issues (which are not my area of expertise), it seems it's a lot harder to develop reliable tests than anyone guessed. If Germany and/or South Korea had a test that is surefire, I imagine it would be all around the world by now. But it isn't. So we shall see what we shall see.

The Washington Nursing Homes wasn't an obvious cluster????
The cruise ships don't count either?
And South Korea's first known case was on the same day as the USA's first known case at least until this week.
The USA just didn't aggressively test and trace those initial clues like Germany and South Korea apparently both did.

Sucks to be us sheltering in place until May or June, but that's the price we are all paying for our sluggish response and multi-week hubris and denial from Pennsylvania Ave, "Main Street" and even Wall Street.

---

There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics.  They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness.   I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.

Could you post a link to a version of these playbooks? I would like to give them a read.

Ask and you shall receive.  The Obama Playbook is the 69 page document at the top of this politico article.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25...cil-149285
[/quote]
This is why history is so tough to write in a time of politicized journalism. Read a little further down, and you find out that the plans weren't abandoned, but reformulated. This is s somewhat akin to the canard that Trump disbanded the Pandemic Task Force, when the reality seems to be that it was combined into a more generic emergency task force, since many of these emergencies have much in common. (Tim Morrison, a White House official took the time to write an op-ed in the Washington Post to correct the record on this, not that it did him any good.) So if you're all conscientious, you're going to have to figure out whether the complaints actually represent a loss of efficiency, or just a bitter loser on a bureaucratic turf war. If you believe as a matter of faith that Trump can do no good. it helps your own efficiency of thought. But it is not terribly impressive to the rest of us. Actual evaluation requires more time and background than any of us have. That's why history is a profession.

Of course, all the crisis planning in the world doesn't do you any good if you don't know there's a crisis. The more I read, the more I'm struck by the quantum of activity that begins about January 28th. People begin to buy face masks in bulk. A White House staffer writes a memo on January 29th. Trump imposes a travel ban on the 31st. 

My sense is that the critical factoid is the date of the social chat by the mainline Chinese doctors, the ones who were so unfairly sanctioned by the government. I'd lay odds it was about then. I hope they get the immortality they deserve. Then, in early February, the Italians chime in, and the rest you know.

---

[quote="Genuine Realist" pid='278281' dateline='1587669199']
It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.

Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.

That's not completely accurate.   The Obama administration had updated the pandemic response playbook AND updated the incoming Trump team on that playbook.   Obama even gave a speech in 2015 (I believe) noting that a global pandemic was one of the USA's biggest concerns. 

Members of the Obama incoming and outgoing transition teams have explained global pandemic readiness was very high on the list of threats to national security.    I am confident Joseph Biden will share those transition details with the USA voters over the next 6 months.

There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics.  They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness.   I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.

I don't think Bush or Obama would have done any better than Angela Merkel has done with Germany.   My guess is many deaths would have happened for any POTUS as too many in the USA would just assume the virus would be stopped by the distance like SARS and MERS.   COVID19 initial symptoms look much like the common flu, so it had the stealthiness required to invade the USA.  However I believe POTUS43 & POTUS44 would have both been quicker to get testing up and running, like we are seeing in Germany now, since testing was key in both teams' playbooks.

I think Germany was aided by an easily identifiable first cluster, as was South Korea.  I'm not going further on comparison of the Administrations after Bush. I have read criticism of Obama as well. But everything comes through the political filter these days. It'll be a long time before accurate history is written about all this. 

I'm also a bit skeptical of the testing reports. As I read the posts here about testing issues (which are not my area of expertise), it seems it's a lot harder to develop reliable tests than anyone guessed. If Germany and/or South Korea had a test that is surefire, I imagine it would be all around the world by now. But it isn't. So we shall see what we shall see.

The Washington Nursing Homes wasn't an obvious cluster????
The cruise ships don't count either?
And South Korea's first known case was on the same day as the USA's first known case at least until this week.
The USA just didn't aggressively test and trace those initial clues like Germany and South Korea apparently both did.

Sucks to be us sheltering in place until May or June, but that's the price we are all paying for our sluggish response and multi-week hubris and denial from Pennsylvania Ave, "Main Street" and even Wall Street.

The clusters you mention were not isolated. And - correct me if i am wrong - i believe Germans are also sheltering in place, and for pretty much the same duration.

[Genuine Realist]

[quote="Genuine Realist" pid='278281' dateline='1587669199']
It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.

Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.

That's not completely accurate.   The Obama administration had updated the pandemic response playbook AND updated the incoming Trump team on that playbook.   Obama even gave a speech in 2015 (I believe) noting that a global pandemic was one of the USA's biggest concerns. 

Members of the Obama incoming and outgoing transition teams have explained global pandemic readiness was very high on the list of threats to national security.    I am confident Joseph Biden will share those transition details with the USA voters over the next 6 months.

There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics.  They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness.   I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.

I don't think Bush or Obama would have done any better than Angela Merkel has done with Germany.   My guess is many deaths would have happened for any POTUS as too many in the USA would just assume the virus would be stopped by the distance like SARS and MERS.   COVID19 initial symptoms look much like the common flu, so it had the stealthiness required to invade the USA.  However I believe POTUS43 & POTUS44 would have both been quicker to get testing up and running, like we are seeing in Germany now, since testing was key in both teams' playbooks.

I think Germany was aided by an easily identifiable first cluster, as was South Korea.  I'm not going further on comparison of the Administrations after Bush. I have read criticism of Obama as well. But everything comes through the political filter these days. It'll be a long time before accurate history is written about all this. 

I'm also a bit skeptical of the testing reports. As I read the posts here about testing issues (which are not my area of expertise), it seems it's a lot harder to develop reliable tests than anyone guessed. If Germany and/or South Korea had a test that is surefire, I imagine it would be all around the world by now. But it isn't. So we shall see what we shall see.

The Washington Nursing Homes wasn't an obvious cluster????
The cruise ships don't count either?
And South Korea's first known case was on the same day as the USA's first known case at least until this week.
The USA just didn't aggressively test and trace those initial clues like Germany and South Korea apparently both did.

Sucks to be us sheltering in place until May or June, but that's the price we are all paying for our sluggish response and multi-week hubris and denial from Pennsylvania Ave, "Main Street" and even Wall Street.

---

There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics.  They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness.   I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.

Could you post a link to a version of these playbooks? I would like to give them a read.

Ask and you shall receive.  The Obama Playbook is the 69 page document at the top of this politico article.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25...cil-149285
[/quote]
This is why history is so tough to write in a time of politicized journalism. Read a little further down, and you find out that the plans weren't abandoned, but reformulated. This is s somewhat akin to the canard that Trump disbanded the Pandemic Task Force, when the reality seems to be that it was combined into a more generic emergency task force, since many of these emergencies have much in common. (Tim Morrison, a White House official took the time to write an op-ed in the Washington Post to correct the record on this, not that it did him any good.) So if you're all conscientious, you're going to have to figure out whether the complaints actually represent a loss of efficiency, or just a bitter loser on a bureaucratic turf war. If you believe as a matter of faith that Trump can do no good. it helps your own efficiency of thought. But it is not terribly impressive to the rest of us. Actual evaluation requires more time and background than any of us have. That's why history is a profession.

Of course, all the crisis planning in the world doesn't do you any good if you don't know there's a crisis. The more I read, the more I'm struck by the quantum of activity that begins about January 28th. People begin to buy face masks in bulk. A White House staffer writes a memo on January 29th. Trump imposes a travel ban on the 31st. 

My sense is that the critical factoid is the date of the social chat by the mainline Chinese doctors, the ones who were so unfairly sanctioned by the government. I'd lay odds it was about then. I hope they get the immortality they deserve. Then, in early February, the Italians chime in, and the rest you know.

---

[quote="Genuine Realist" pid='278281' dateline='1587669199']
It IS a good post, but you have to remove the much under-appreciated George W. Bush from the President's list. Back in 2005, he read John Berry's book about the 1918 pandemic, became alarmed at the state of the unpreparedness of the US, and proposed and implemented a fairly comprehensive plan for response. Here's the link, from ABC News, not one of his admirers. Given the state of news reporting in 2005, I doubt the NYT even gave the speech front section coverage.

Evidently, Bush's plan was completely ignored by both subsequent Administrations, and fell into disuse.

That's not completely accurate.   The Obama administration had updated the pandemic response playbook AND updated the incoming Trump team on that playbook.   Obama even gave a speech in 2015 (I believe) noting that a global pandemic was one of the USA's biggest concerns. 

Members of the Obama incoming and outgoing transition teams have explained global pandemic readiness was very high on the list of threats to national security.    I am confident Joseph Biden will share those transition details with the USA voters over the next 6 months.

There were positions in the federal government that are responsible for global pandemics.  They were posted in the Global Health Security and Biodefense unit - responsible for pandemic preparedness.   I say were because that unit was disbanded by the Trump administration in 2018.

I don't think Bush or Obama would have done any better than Angela Merkel has done with Germany.   My guess is many deaths would have happened for any POTUS as too many in the USA would just assume the virus would be stopped by the distance like SARS and MERS.   COVID19 initial symptoms look much like the common flu, so it had the stealthiness required to invade the USA.  However I believe POTUS43 & POTUS44 would have both been quicker to get testing up and running, like we are seeing in Germany now, since testing was key in both teams' playbooks.

I think Germany was aided by an easily identifiable first cluster, as was South Korea.  I'm not going further on comparison of the Administrations after Bush. I have read criticism of Obama as well. But everything comes through the political filter these days. It'll be a long time before accurate history is written about all this. 

I'm also a bit skeptical of the testing reports. As I read the posts here about testing issues (which are not my area of expertise), it seems it's a lot harder to develop reliable tests than anyone guessed. If Germany and/or South Korea had a test that is surefire, I imagine it would be all around the world by now. But it isn't. So we shall see what we shall see.

The Washington Nursing Homes wasn't an obvious cluster????
The cruise ships don't count either?
And South Korea's first known case was on the same day as the USA's first known case at least until this week.
The USA just didn't aggressively test and trace those initial clues like Germany and South Korea apparently both did.

Sucks to be us sheltering in place until May or June, but that's the price we are all paying for our sluggish response and multi-week hubris and denial from Pennsylvania Ave, "Main Street" and even Wall Street.

The clusters you mention were not isolated. And - correct me if i am wrong - i believe Germans are also sheltering in place, and for pretty much the same duration.