[DenverCard]

Doubt about the accuracy of the Santa Clara antibody/prevalence study is being made irrelevant by studies with the same goal that have involved pregnant women, prisoners, Sweden, and now NY that suggest a very high number of asymptomatic patients with the virus.  Does this not spell doom to the effort to have people shelter in place, especially when combined with a) the economic pressure to open up society again and b) social isolation fatigue that is taking hold, at least per my personal observations (and feelings, even as one who is uncommonly apprehensive about contracting the virus)?

With a high prevalence of asymptomatic carriers, any attempt at contact tracing is doomed.  Already it seems that the virus is everywhere, and that it's only a question of when, rather than if, a person contracts it, unless he/she is a super-isolater.

With indications that a game-changing treatment (e.g. chloroquine, remdesivir) is unlikely, and the long horizon for a vaccine, there is less benefit to the individual to deferring -- so to speak -- his/her infection for a time when treatment options are likely to be significantly better.

There remains the benefit to society of social isolation, insofar as it can help prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed, but that is going to be an increasingly hard sell as summer approaches, especially if the estimated IRF becomes less.

[DenverCard]

Doubt about the accuracy of the Santa Clara antibody/prevalence study is being made irrelevant by studies with the same goal that have involved pregnant women, prisoners, Sweden, and now NY that suggest a very high number of asymptomatic patients with the virus.  Does this not spell doom to the effort to have people shelter in place, especially when combined with a) the economic pressure to open up society again and b) social isolation fatigue that is taking hold, at least per my personal observations (and feelings, even as one who is uncommonly apprehensive about contracting the virus)?

With a high prevalence of asymptomatic carriers, any attempt at contact tracing is doomed.  Already it seems that the virus is everywhere, and that it's only a question of when, rather than if, a person contracts it, unless he/she is a super-isolater.

With indications that a game-changing treatment (e.g. chloroquine, remdesivir) is unlikely, and the long horizon for a vaccine, there is less benefit to the individual to deferring -- so to speak -- his/her infection for a time when treatment options are likely to be significantly better.

There remains the benefit to society of social isolation, insofar as it can help prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed, but that is going to be an increasingly hard sell as summer approaches, especially if the estimated IRF becomes less.