[M T]

Of course, all the crisis planning in the world doesn't do you any good if you don't know there's a crisis. The more I read, the more I'm struck by the quantum of activity that begins about January 28th. People begin to buy face masks in bulk. A White House staffer writes a memo on January 29th. Trump imposes a travel ban on the 31st. 

My sense is that the critical factoid is the date of the social chat by the mainline Chinese doctors, the ones who were so unfairly sanctioned by the government. I'd lay odds it was about then. I hope they get the immortality they deserve. Then, in early February, the Italians chime in, and the rest you know.

What odds would you have given? 

The rather unimportant social chat which you I believe you are talking about was half the lifetime of the disease earlier, on December 30.  (The "unexplained pneumonia" was mentioned in the paper that same day.  The national health organization had been called in.  The WHO was notified the next day.  Fauci talked to China about it on Jan 4 & 8.  One prominent virologist in the US said he heard of the disease on Dec. 15 (I'm not sure that's accurate, but that's what he said).  It was about that Jan. 28 that the virologist flew to China to talk to the doctors & the political leaders.)

---

And the WHO issuing its first situation on January 21.

That is the date for the first WHO SitRep. but it wasn't as if WHO was silent or idle until then. 

It refers to earlier publications.

• Jan 5: Disease outbreak notification.
  

• A Jan 9 announcement about the Wuhan pneumonia cluster
  

• A travel alert was issued on Jan. 10.
  
• Several other recommendations, guidelines, etc. linked by the Jan 15 (date of archive. I don't know date of creation) page on Coronavirusess
  

• Jan 13 info about a traveler from Wuhan who was sick in Thailand.
  

On WHO's page on Coronaviruses, WHO stated
  "Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between animals and people."
I suspect they believed that this was the case for the novel coronavirus.

For MERS, WHO wrote
  "The current pattern of disease in humans appears to be the result of repeated introductions of the virus from dromedaries to people, resulting in limited human-to-human transmission, but not in sustained transmission."

  "The virus does not seem to pass easily from person to person unless there is close contact, such as occurs when providing unprotected care to a patient."

I suspect that WHO (and, for that matter, China) was inclined to believe the same was true of the 2019-ncov. 

If you read the contemporaneous 2019-ncov surveillance guidelines, you see the same theme.  They expect the disease to be associated with Wuhan (where the presumed infectious animals are), and they are looking out for "sustained human-to-human transmission" (my emphasis).

[M T]

Of course, all the crisis planning in the world doesn't do you any good if you don't know there's a crisis. The more I read, the more I'm struck by the quantum of activity that begins about January 28th. People begin to buy face masks in bulk. A White House staffer writes a memo on January 29th. Trump imposes a travel ban on the 31st. 

My sense is that the critical factoid is the date of the social chat by the mainline Chinese doctors, the ones who were so unfairly sanctioned by the government. I'd lay odds it was about then. I hope they get the immortality they deserve. Then, in early February, the Italians chime in, and the rest you know.

What odds would you have given? 

The rather unimportant social chat which you I believe you are talking about was half the lifetime of the disease earlier, on December 30.  (The "unexplained pneumonia" was mentioned in the paper that same day.  The national health organization had been called in.  The WHO was notified the next day.  Fauci talked to China about it on Jan 4 & 8.  One prominent virologist in the US said he heard of the disease on Dec. 15 (I'm not sure that's accurate, but that's what he said).  It was about that Jan. 28 that the virologist flew to China to talk to the doctors & the political leaders.)

---

And the WHO issuing its first situation on January 21.

That is the date for the first WHO SitRep. but it wasn't as if WHO was silent or idle until then. 

It refers to earlier publications.

• Jan 5: Disease outbreak notification.
  

• A Jan 9 announcement about the Wuhan pneumonia cluster
  

• A travel alert was issued on Jan. 10.
  
• Several other recommendations, guidelines, etc. linked by the Jan 15 (date of archive. I don't know date of creation) page on Coronavirusess
  

• Jan 13 info about a traveler from Wuhan who was sick in Thailand.
  

On WHO's page on Coronaviruses, WHO stated
  "Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between animals and people."
I suspect they believed that this was the case for the novel coronavirus.

For MERS, WHO wrote
  "The current pattern of disease in humans appears to be the result of repeated introductions of the virus from dromedaries to people, resulting in limited human-to-human transmission, but not in sustained transmission."

  "The virus does not seem to pass easily from person to person unless there is close contact, such as occurs when providing unprotected care to a patient."

I suspect that WHO (and, for that matter, China) was inclined to believe the same was true of the 2019-ncov. 

If you read the contemporaneous 2019-ncov surveillance guidelines, you see the same theme.  They expect the disease to be associated with Wuhan (where the presumed infectious animals are), and they are looking out for "sustained human-to-human transmission" (my emphasis).