[Snorlax94]

Its hard to imagine we can effectively run a tracing program as well as South Korea, or even have the patience to wait for our community transmission to drop to a low enough point where its feasible. I imagine we'll probably end up adopting some sort of Sweden model where we try and let it burn through at a controlled pace. 

I keep fluctuating day by day, one day I’m hopeful we can trace and contain, other days I feel like we’ll have to go with the slow burn.

But here’s a thought I found hopeful: in Santa Clara County, the new confirmed cases has dropped from a high of 80-100
cases a day to 20-30. And we can assume that was where we were 7 days ago, maybe now it’s 10-15. Now, we all know the true rate is higher because in the past we didn’t even test the medium-symptomatic people let alone the asymptomatic exposed, and there is a multiplier — maybe it’s 10x, maybe it’s 50x.

But as our testing is increasing,  the state and counties are moving to the point where all symptomatic and asymptomatic essential workers are welcome to test (in sf, at least). I agree it’s not clear we can achieve containment, but I do think it’s worth trying.

And it can’t hurt — even if they can’t trace every case, if they have the capacity to test a lot of people, contacting all contacts of anyone who tests positive and signing them up for a same-day test could protect many people.

It’s just still behind where we wish they were.

[Snorlax94]

Its hard to imagine we can effectively run a tracing program as well as South Korea, or even have the patience to wait for our community transmission to drop to a low enough point where its feasible. I imagine we'll probably end up adopting some sort of Sweden model where we try and let it burn through at a controlled pace. 

I keep fluctuating day by day, one day I’m hopeful we can trace and contain, other days I feel like we’ll have to go with the slow burn.

But here’s a thought I found hopeful: in Santa Clara County, the new confirmed cases has dropped from a high of 80-100
cases a day to 20-30. And we can assume that was where we were 7 days ago, maybe now it’s 10-15. Now, we all know the true rate is higher because in the past we didn’t even test the medium-symptomatic people let alone the asymptomatic exposed, and there is a multiplier — maybe it’s 10x, maybe it’s 50x.

But as our testing is increasing,  the state and counties are moving to the point where all symptomatic and asymptomatic essential workers are welcome to test (in sf, at least). I agree it’s not clear we can achieve containment, but I do think it’s worth trying.

And it can’t hurt — even if they can’t trace every case, if they have the capacity to test a lot of people, contacting all contacts of anyone who tests positive and signing them up for a same-day test could protect many people.

It’s just still behind where we wish they were.