[Mick]

Did your RTW survey ask about if/how employers were rethinking physical distancing in workplaces that are more densely packed but require employees to be in the office (I'm thinking places like call centers)? I'd be curious to hear what modifications private employers may be anticipating, such as fever checks, larger enforced distances between desks, etc.

Our survey doesn't go quite that deep and tends to focus on labor & employment issues.  We do ask about modifications, but only 13% have a fully fleshed out plan that includes major modifications.  Another 1/3 have a fully fleshed out plan that involve minor modifications.  About 1/3 are "working on it"  The rest plan to work remotely, while a very small percentage plan no changes.  Typical size of the company, about 300 employees; 150+ respondents.

It still doesn't sound like we have a great plan for work that requires being in a facility - saying it's an employer's market essentially concedes the plan is to invoke duress to force employees to return. And I suppose once August 1 hits and the topped up unemployment insurance ends, that could work. But I still don't see how customer-facing businesses like restaurants, movie theaters, etc. will work. Even if you can get employees to return, most restaurants rely on an older demographic to survive, and if I know my local bistro is relying on young people to risk getting COVID-19 in order to operate, do I really want to be served by a asymptomatic carrier if I'm 60+, immuno-compromised, etc.? Why do I risk a crowded bar when I can meet my friends in the park, for a small house party, etc. I can pass on the latest movie releases and stream something from home. And so on.

I'd agree.  There's too many ramifications, too many variables.  We have about 20 people working on a three-page long list of considerations, and we have very few public or client visitors.

People will be desperate for income.  Four months is going to go by in a hurry.  Businesses will have their requisite employees, and as you point out, there won't be as many customers.  We've done a pretty good job of destroying the economy (save the hate posts, I'm just citing a fact), so no one has any money to spend.  While you'd be surprised at how many people are desperate to leave their homes for almost any reason, revenue is a long way off.

If those declining to eat out, go to the movies, go to bars, etc., constitute even more than 5-10% of the population, I still don't understand how these low-margin businesses will have the gross margins to be profitable while open. Maybe they can live off the SBA loans for the next 12-18 months until a vaccine?

I don't either.  I don't understand how the majority of people are going to live with no income.  How will they buy food, pay the rent?  No idea.

[Mick]

Did your RTW survey ask about if/how employers were rethinking physical distancing in workplaces that are more densely packed but require employees to be in the office (I'm thinking places like call centers)? I'd be curious to hear what modifications private employers may be anticipating, such as fever checks, larger enforced distances between desks, etc.

Our survey doesn't go quite that deep and tends to focus on labor & employment issues.  We do ask about modifications, but only 13% have a fully fleshed out plan that includes major modifications.  Another 1/3 have a fully fleshed out plan that involve minor modifications.  About 1/3 are "working on it"  The rest plan to work remotely, while a very small percentage plan no changes.  Typical size of the company, about 300 employees; 150+ respondents.

It still doesn't sound like we have a great plan for work that requires being in a facility - saying it's an employer's market essentially concedes the plan is to invoke duress to force employees to return. And I suppose once August 1 hits and the topped up unemployment insurance ends, that could work. But I still don't see how customer-facing businesses like restaurants, movie theaters, etc. will work. Even if you can get employees to return, most restaurants rely on an older demographic to survive, and if I know my local bistro is relying on young people to risk getting COVID-19 in order to operate, do I really want to be served by a asymptomatic carrier if I'm 60+, immuno-compromised, etc.? Why do I risk a crowded bar when I can meet my friends in the park, for a small house party, etc. I can pass on the latest movie releases and stream something from home. And so on.

I'd agree.  There's too many ramifications, too many variables.  We have about 20 people working on a three-page long list of considerations, and we have very few public or client visitors.

People will be desperate for income.  Four months is going to go by in a hurry.  Businesses will have their requisite employees, and as you point out, there won't be as many customers.  We've done a pretty good job of destroying the economy (save the hate posts, I'm just citing a fact), so no one has any money to spend.  While you'd be surprised at how many people are desperate to leave their homes for almost any reason, revenue is a long way off.

If those declining to eat out, go to the movies, go to bars, etc., constitute even more than 5-10% of the population, I still don't understand how these low-margin businesses will have the gross margins to be profitable while open. Maybe they can live off the SBA loans for the next 12-18 months until a vaccine?

I don't either.  I don't understand how the majority of people are going to live with no income.  How will they buy food, pay the rent?  No idea.