[M T]

Sorry for the shotgun approach.  I found these interesting, but didn't feel each deserved its own thread.  (In response to the Where do you get your news question, I've recently been scanning "COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv")

Remember, these are not peer reviewed and not yet published.

---

(I lead with one that will get your attention, but do scan through them all.)

From Australian authors: "America Addresses Two Epidemics: Cannabis and Coronavirus and their Interactions: An Ecological Geospatial Study"

Cannabis smoking is linked with poor respiratory health, immunosuppression and multiple contaminants. ... Cigarettes were implicated with disease severity in Wuhan, China. ...

Data indicate coronavirus incidence rate (CVIR) demonstrates significant trends across cannabis use intensity quintiles and with relaxed cannabis legislation. Recent cannabis use is independently predictive of CVIR in bivariate and multivariable adjusted models and intensity of use is interactively significant.

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Functional and Genetic Analysis of Viral Receptor ACE2 Orthologs Reveals Broad Potential Host Range of SARS-CoV-2

Functional assays showed that 44 of these mammalian ACE2 orthologs, including domestic animals, pet animals, livestock animals and even animals in the zoo or aquaria, could bind viral spike protein and support SARS-CoV-2 entry.

lions & tigers & bears,
sea lions & whales,
horses, cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, ....

---

"No test is better than a bad test": Impact of diagnostic uncertainty in mass testing on the spread of Covid-19

regarding the issues of specificity & sensitivity of tests relative to opening up the UK

Findings: Diagnostic uncertainty [of test results] can have a large effect on the epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 within the UK. The dynamics of the epidemic are more sensitive to test performance and targeting than test capacity. The quantity of tests is not a substitute for an effective strategy. Poorly targeted testing has the propensity to exacerbate the peak in infections.
Interpretation: The assessment that 'no test is better than a bad test' is broadly supported by the present analysis. Antibody testing is unlikely to be a solution to the lock-down, regardless of test quality or capacity. A well designed active viral testing strategy combined with incremental relaxation of the lock-down measures is shown to be a potential strategy to restore some social activity whilst continuing to keep infections low.

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Years of life lost due to the psychosocial consequences of COVID19 mitigation strategies based on Swiss data

We used years of life lost (YLL) as the main outcome measure as applied to Switzerland as an exemplar. We focused on suicide, depression, alcohol use disorder, childhood trauma due to domestic violence, changes in marital status and social isolation as these are known to increase YLL in the context of imposed restriction in social contact and freedom of movement. We stipulated a minimum duration of mitigation of 3 months based on current public health plans.
Results: The study projects that the average person would suffer 0.205 YLL due to psychosocial consequence of COVID-19 mitigation measures. However, this loss would be entirely borne by 2.1% of the population, who will suffer an average 9.79 YLL.
Conclusions: The results presented here are likely to underestimate the true impact of the mitigation strategies on YLL. However, they highlight the need for public health models to expand their scope in order to provide better estimates of the risks and benefits of mitigation.

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Impacts of Early Interventions on the Age-Specific Incidence of COVID-19in New York, Los Angeles, Daegu and Nairobi

Our modeling quantifies the value of early interventions, which avoided an additional 5%, 16%, 37% and 43% of the infections in Daegu, Nairobi, New York and Los Angeles, respectively, compared to what has been observed in the four cities.  The finding is clear: in the absence of pharmaceutical options, delaying strict social policy interventions has resulted in substantial public health cost. This modeling can, and will, be applied to other cities and regions, and conducted in conjunction with other health insults, such as exposure to air pollution. Critically, we find that school closures, working from home, and reduction in other mobility were most beneficial for younger population (0-19 years old), middle-age (20-59 years old) population and older population (60 years and older), respectively across each city. Specifically, school closure avoided 25%, 18%, 16% and 12% of the infections for the population under 20 years old in Daegu, Los Angeles, New York and Nairobi, respectively. A 50% and 80% population working from home policy avoids 8% and 15% of the infections. Reduction in mobility was more effective than the working from home strategy. Any single social distancing policy if enacted alone can delay the spread of COVID-19 but was unable to totally suppress the infection. Coordinated policy action can be highly effective. Increasing the quarantine rate to 10% of infectious cases was more effective than strict social distancing alone in this study, although together they can suppress 80% of the epidemic. A combination of moderate social distancing and quarantine strategies was able to avoid 99% of the infections.

[M T]

Sorry for the shotgun approach.  I found these interesting, but didn't feel each deserved its own thread.  (In response to the Where do you get your news question, I've recently been scanning "COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv")

Remember, these are not peer reviewed and not yet published.

---

(I lead with one that will get your attention, but do scan through them all.)

From Australian authors: "America Addresses Two Epidemics: Cannabis and Coronavirus and their Interactions: An Ecological Geospatial Study"

Cannabis smoking is linked with poor respiratory health, immunosuppression and multiple contaminants. ... Cigarettes were implicated with disease severity in Wuhan, China. ...

Data indicate coronavirus incidence rate (CVIR) demonstrates significant trends across cannabis use intensity quintiles and with relaxed cannabis legislation. Recent cannabis use is independently predictive of CVIR in bivariate and multivariable adjusted models and intensity of use is interactively significant.

---

Functional and Genetic Analysis of Viral Receptor ACE2 Orthologs Reveals Broad Potential Host Range of SARS-CoV-2

Functional assays showed that 44 of these mammalian ACE2 orthologs, including domestic animals, pet animals, livestock animals and even animals in the zoo or aquaria, could bind viral spike protein and support SARS-CoV-2 entry.

lions & tigers & bears,
sea lions & whales,
horses, cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, ....

---

"No test is better than a bad test": Impact of diagnostic uncertainty in mass testing on the spread of Covid-19

regarding the issues of specificity & sensitivity of tests relative to opening up the UK

Findings: Diagnostic uncertainty [of test results] can have a large effect on the epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 within the UK. The dynamics of the epidemic are more sensitive to test performance and targeting than test capacity. The quantity of tests is not a substitute for an effective strategy. Poorly targeted testing has the propensity to exacerbate the peak in infections.
Interpretation: The assessment that 'no test is better than a bad test' is broadly supported by the present analysis. Antibody testing is unlikely to be a solution to the lock-down, regardless of test quality or capacity. A well designed active viral testing strategy combined with incremental relaxation of the lock-down measures is shown to be a potential strategy to restore some social activity whilst continuing to keep infections low.

---

Years of life lost due to the psychosocial consequences of COVID19 mitigation strategies based on Swiss data

We used years of life lost (YLL) as the main outcome measure as applied to Switzerland as an exemplar. We focused on suicide, depression, alcohol use disorder, childhood trauma due to domestic violence, changes in marital status and social isolation as these are known to increase YLL in the context of imposed restriction in social contact and freedom of movement. We stipulated a minimum duration of mitigation of 3 months based on current public health plans.
Results: The study projects that the average person would suffer 0.205 YLL due to psychosocial consequence of COVID-19 mitigation measures. However, this loss would be entirely borne by 2.1% of the population, who will suffer an average 9.79 YLL.
Conclusions: The results presented here are likely to underestimate the true impact of the mitigation strategies on YLL. However, they highlight the need for public health models to expand their scope in order to provide better estimates of the risks and benefits of mitigation.

---

Impacts of Early Interventions on the Age-Specific Incidence of COVID-19in New York, Los Angeles, Daegu and Nairobi

Our modeling quantifies the value of early interventions, which avoided an additional 5%, 16%, 37% and 43% of the infections in Daegu, Nairobi, New York and Los Angeles, respectively, compared to what has been observed in the four cities.  The finding is clear: in the absence of pharmaceutical options, delaying strict social policy interventions has resulted in substantial public health cost. This modeling can, and will, be applied to other cities and regions, and conducted in conjunction with other health insults, such as exposure to air pollution. Critically, we find that school closures, working from home, and reduction in other mobility were most beneficial for younger population (0-19 years old), middle-age (20-59 years old) population and older population (60 years and older), respectively across each city. Specifically, school closure avoided 25%, 18%, 16% and 12% of the infections for the population under 20 years old in Daegu, Los Angeles, New York and Nairobi, respectively. A 50% and 80% population working from home policy avoids 8% and 15% of the infections. Reduction in mobility was more effective than the working from home strategy. Any single social distancing policy if enacted alone can delay the spread of COVID-19 but was unable to totally suppress the infection. Coordinated policy action can be highly effective. Increasing the quarantine rate to 10% of infectious cases was more effective than strict social distancing alone in this study, although together they can suppress 80% of the epidemic. A combination of moderate social distancing and quarantine strategies was able to avoid 99% of the infections.