That's a great compilation, M T. Thanks.
It looks like the counties you listed are getting ~150 new cases a day. Of course, that's a fraction of the actual total because of (still) limited testing and asymptomatic cases. So, how many actual cases are we adding daily?
- bare minimum estimate: 50% of cases are asymptomatic + all symptomatic cases are being caught, so a 2:1 multiplier: 300 a day (not likely!)
- high-end-ish estimate: 20:1 multiplier of positive tests to actual cases, so we're really getting 3000 new cases a day
The real number is probably somewhere between these two. Even if it's in the hundreds, I think that's still too many to contemplate opening up yet. I'd like to see most counties down to the single digits daily (shout out to Sac County, leading the way!). Let's see where things stand in a couple of weeks.
FWIW, given the trends, I'm optimstic about a partial reopening in a month or so. I think we'll be allowed to do outdoor stuff, go to the beach (Sacramento people like me have never been to one, but I hear they're nice), golf, etc. Indoor stuff reopening is probably further out. A month from now we'll have data from GA, etc. on how their (wildly irresponsible) experiment is going, so that may influence things her.
It looks like the counties you listed are getting ~150 new cases a day. Of course, that's a fraction of the actual total because of (still) limited testing and asymptomatic cases. So, how many actual cases are we adding daily?
- bare minimum estimate: 50% of cases are asymptomatic + all symptomatic cases are being caught, so a 2:1 multiplier: 300 a day (not likely!)
- high-end-ish estimate: 20:1 multiplier of positive tests to actual cases, so we're really getting 3000 new cases a day
The real number is probably somewhere between these two. Even if it's in the hundreds, I think that's still too many to contemplate opening up yet. I'd like to see most counties down to the single digits daily (shout out to Sac County, leading the way!). Let's see where things stand in a couple of weeks.
FWIW, given the trends, I'm optimstic about a partial reopening in a month or so. I think we'll be allowed to do outdoor stuff, go to the beach (Sacramento people like me have never been to one, but I hear they're nice), golf, etc. Indoor stuff reopening is probably further out. A month from now we'll have data from GA, etc. on how their (wildly irresponsible) experiment is going, so that may influence things her.