[Genuine Realist]

GR, every country you dismiss as either being too small or too close to China to be a fair comparison. So the only fair comparisons are the larger nations of Europe? That's... not a large sample size. If you're going to insist on only looking at wealthy non-Asian democracies with populations >60M

Someone mentioned Canada and you didn't respond at all. Seems pretty relevant as a fairly large, pluralistic, wealthy, north American country, that has 40% of the deaths per capita as us.

But, ultimately, the whole thing is pointless. You've clearly decided ahead of time what the parameters of the game are, and ignore anything going against what you want to conclude. Even by your own timeline the other countries reacted weeks ahead of Trump. You say that Germany quickly switched gears after their first covid death. The first US covid death known at the time was in late February, but our declaration of emergency wasn't until two weeks later. And, as far as I'm aware, the US still isn't coordinating supply at a federal level (just today I saw that London Breed claimed that FEMA confiscated SF-ordered masks).

It's even more ironic that, during the time you're working so feverishly to convince us that the US response was adequate, the president goes out and does something that literally makes people drink bleach.



And teejers, the fact that you can't tell the difference between "open up BeCaUsE tHe EcOnOmY" and "well I guess our public officials are such failures that the best we're going to be able to do is a controlled burn until we get to herd immunity" tells us all we need to know about your analytical skills.

I'm not responding because I said last post, and I meant it.

'Declarations of emergency' are legalistic. They basically are predicates for various actions that the government can take. It's the time when action that is taken that matters. Germany went into overall lockdown mode during the same period the US did. In any case, during the January-March time period, it no more got ahead of the curve than any other nation. I notice you did not comment on the various pronouncements of Health Minister Spahn, which were relatively equivalent to Trump's, and made well into February.

Here's the Canadian timeline. It's not materially different than the US - growing awareness and half-measures in January, an airlift on January 29th, various ad hoc measures in February (nothing comprehensive), followed by more drastic government and business closures starting - as always - March 10th. Canada's experience and reactions are not materially different than the US.

Canada was mentioned in, like, the second reply. It wasn't after your "take my ball and go home" comments. Which, by the way, you keep violating, so I don't know why you even said it.

But what is your definition of "materially different"? Because other posters have compiled long lists of dated Trump statements downplaying the virus. I just looked one up and in a fun coincidence, here's what Trump was saying on your auspicious date of March 10:

Q    Mr. President, how long should Americans be prepared for the economy to suffer?

THE PRESIDENT:  Well, this was unexpected.  This was something that came out of China, and it hit us and many other countries.  You look at the numbers; I see the numbers with just by watching you folks.  I see it — it’s over 100 different countries.  And it hit the world.

And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it.  And it will go away.  Just stay calm.  It will go away.
We want to protect our shipping industry, our cruise industry, cruise ships.  We want to protect our airline industry — very important.  But everybody has to be vigilant and has to be careful.

But be calm.  It’s really working out.  And a lot of good things are going to happen.  The consumer is ready, and the consumer is so powerful in our country with what we’ve done with tax cuts and regulation cuts and all of those things.  The consumer has never been in a better position than they are right now.

So a lot of good things are going to happen.  Thank you very much, everybody.

I understand not wanting to cause panic, but there's a difference between that and setting realistic expectations, which you seem to say that most countries were doing by March 10.



One thing that just occurred to me about this whole pointless exercise, but I'm not sure anyone has really said, is that comparing us to other countries like this is showing how Trump has diminished the US. We're supposed to be the leader of the free world. We're supposed to be the best. We're supposed to be the place that the rest of the world looks to for leadership, as an example of how to do things. You can argue that that backsliding has been happening for a long time, which I won't disagree with, but it's utterly inarguable that it has accelerated under Trump. No other leader was touting specific medicines and inspiring people to drink aquarium cleaner. No other leader spitballs about getting disinfectants into the lungs. No other leader was blaming the opposition for fear-mongering in March.

If you look at our leadership, and then look at leadership around the world, and see something of rough equivalence, I'd suggest a long look in the mirror.

I will answer, at the risk of being accused of promise breaking.

By 'materially different', I mean in terms of actual measures taken - not talk, which is awfully cheap. Now let us move on.

---

That's why I tend to think reopening is a sideshow, we'd be better off just following the advice of the epidemiologists, but also do some crazy stimulus that makes what we've done so far look timid. It doesn't seem like this is forthcoming, which is depressing, because I think that leaves us with a menu composed mostly of various flavors of shit sandwiches.

Unfortunately, a crazy stimulus at some point makes the money worthless with Weimar Republic inflation levels. Or, for more recent cases, see Argentina. Until we have an economy that can actually open to do business, it isn't a "stimulus". It is just keeping people from starving. We have to do it, but confusing it with a stimulus is IMHO an error. There is an underlying reality that can't be ignored. I think the menu is composed exclusively of shit sandwiches. There is no "obvious" good choice. It is difficult to know which set of choices is least bad.

I agree with almost all of your sensible posts. But my own thought is that deflation is far more likely than inflation. Money just isn't circulating anymore. My last tank of gas is likely to last 60 days.

[Genuine Realist]

GR, every country you dismiss as either being too small or too close to China to be a fair comparison. So the only fair comparisons are the larger nations of Europe? That's... not a large sample size. If you're going to insist on only looking at wealthy non-Asian democracies with populations >60M

Someone mentioned Canada and you didn't respond at all. Seems pretty relevant as a fairly large, pluralistic, wealthy, north American country, that has 40% of the deaths per capita as us.

But, ultimately, the whole thing is pointless. You've clearly decided ahead of time what the parameters of the game are, and ignore anything going against what you want to conclude. Even by your own timeline the other countries reacted weeks ahead of Trump. You say that Germany quickly switched gears after their first covid death. The first US covid death known at the time was in late February, but our declaration of emergency wasn't until two weeks later. And, as far as I'm aware, the US still isn't coordinating supply at a federal level (just today I saw that London Breed claimed that FEMA confiscated SF-ordered masks).

It's even more ironic that, during the time you're working so feverishly to convince us that the US response was adequate, the president goes out and does something that literally makes people drink bleach.



And teejers, the fact that you can't tell the difference between "open up BeCaUsE tHe EcOnOmY" and "well I guess our public officials are such failures that the best we're going to be able to do is a controlled burn until we get to herd immunity" tells us all we need to know about your analytical skills.

I'm not responding because I said last post, and I meant it.

'Declarations of emergency' are legalistic. They basically are predicates for various actions that the government can take. It's the time when action that is taken that matters. Germany went into overall lockdown mode during the same period the US did. In any case, during the January-March time period, it no more got ahead of the curve than any other nation. I notice you did not comment on the various pronouncements of Health Minister Spahn, which were relatively equivalent to Trump's, and made well into February.

Here's the Canadian timeline. It's not materially different than the US - growing awareness and half-measures in January, an airlift on January 29th, various ad hoc measures in February (nothing comprehensive), followed by more drastic government and business closures starting - as always - March 10th. Canada's experience and reactions are not materially different than the US.

Canada was mentioned in, like, the second reply. It wasn't after your "take my ball and go home" comments. Which, by the way, you keep violating, so I don't know why you even said it.

But what is your definition of "materially different"? Because other posters have compiled long lists of dated Trump statements downplaying the virus. I just looked one up and in a fun coincidence, here's what Trump was saying on your auspicious date of March 10:

Q    Mr. President, how long should Americans be prepared for the economy to suffer?

THE PRESIDENT:  Well, this was unexpected.  This was something that came out of China, and it hit us and many other countries.  You look at the numbers; I see the numbers with just by watching you folks.  I see it — it’s over 100 different countries.  And it hit the world.

And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it.  And it will go away.  Just stay calm.  It will go away.
We want to protect our shipping industry, our cruise industry, cruise ships.  We want to protect our airline industry — very important.  But everybody has to be vigilant and has to be careful.

But be calm.  It’s really working out.  And a lot of good things are going to happen.  The consumer is ready, and the consumer is so powerful in our country with what we’ve done with tax cuts and regulation cuts and all of those things.  The consumer has never been in a better position than they are right now.

So a lot of good things are going to happen.  Thank you very much, everybody.

I understand not wanting to cause panic, but there's a difference between that and setting realistic expectations, which you seem to say that most countries were doing by March 10.



One thing that just occurred to me about this whole pointless exercise, but I'm not sure anyone has really said, is that comparing us to other countries like this is showing how Trump has diminished the US. We're supposed to be the leader of the free world. We're supposed to be the best. We're supposed to be the place that the rest of the world looks to for leadership, as an example of how to do things. You can argue that that backsliding has been happening for a long time, which I won't disagree with, but it's utterly inarguable that it has accelerated under Trump. No other leader was touting specific medicines and inspiring people to drink aquarium cleaner. No other leader spitballs about getting disinfectants into the lungs. No other leader was blaming the opposition for fear-mongering in March.

If you look at our leadership, and then look at leadership around the world, and see something of rough equivalence, I'd suggest a long look in the mirror.

I will answer, at the risk of being accused of promise breaking.

By 'materially different', I mean in terms of actual measures taken - not talk, which is awfully cheap. Now let us move on.

---

That's why I tend to think reopening is a sideshow, we'd be better off just following the advice of the epidemiologists, but also do some crazy stimulus that makes what we've done so far look timid. It doesn't seem like this is forthcoming, which is depressing, because I think that leaves us with a menu composed mostly of various flavors of shit sandwiches.

Unfortunately, a crazy stimulus at some point makes the money worthless with Weimar Republic inflation levels. Or, for more recent cases, see Argentina. Until we have an economy that can actually open to do business, it isn't a "stimulus". It is just keeping people from starving. We have to do it, but confusing it with a stimulus is IMHO an error. There is an underlying reality that can't be ignored. I think the menu is composed exclusively of shit sandwiches. There is no "obvious" good choice. It is difficult to know which set of choices is least bad.

I agree with almost all of your sensible posts. But my own thought is that deflation is far more likely than inflation. Money just isn't circulating anymore. My last tank of gas is likely to last 60 days.