04-29-2020, 03:43 PM
Someone shared this site before:
https://rt.live/
If you look at the state by state data, there is no clear pattern to suggest that shelter in place orders clearly made a difference in the rate of decline of Rt. Now, there are a lot of caveats there, to be sure. The graph of Rt is based on a model, and the underlying data on infections is imperfect. Moreover, while the statewide shelter in place may have happened at a defined time, individual behavior may have changed before or after the SiP order was instituted.
All that being said, it is hard to see a whopping effect there. Rt fell across states, started falling before SiP orders were instituted, and didn't seem to fall faster once they were put in place. The Rt fall seems to have happened at roughly the same time across states regardless of whether the state instituted the order early, late, or not at all.
If so, then it is possible that as shelter in place orders are lifted, an anticipated spike in cases may not happen, which would be great news.
BC
https://rt.live/
If you look at the state by state data, there is no clear pattern to suggest that shelter in place orders clearly made a difference in the rate of decline of Rt. Now, there are a lot of caveats there, to be sure. The graph of Rt is based on a model, and the underlying data on infections is imperfect. Moreover, while the statewide shelter in place may have happened at a defined time, individual behavior may have changed before or after the SiP order was instituted.
All that being said, it is hard to see a whopping effect there. Rt fell across states, started falling before SiP orders were instituted, and didn't seem to fall faster once they were put in place. The Rt fall seems to have happened at roughly the same time across states regardless of whether the state instituted the order early, late, or not at all.
If so, then it is possible that as shelter in place orders are lifted, an anticipated spike in cases may not happen, which would be great news.
BC