04-29-2020, 04:34 PM
I think the focus on change in R(t) at the time of re-opening is a bit misguided. Isn't the more important measure the raw number of new cases being added daily or weekly, not the transmission rate? Florida is adding about 700 cases a day right now, which is down about 50% from the peak. The improvement is good. But after accounting for undiagnosed cases, they're probably adding anywhere from 1000-10,000 new cases a day (I'd lean towards the lower end, but who knows). Whatever that number is, it's going to go up now.
A decrease in the number of new cases (or hospitalizations or deaths) should be just one of the signals for re-opening. For whatever measure you use, you should also want as low as number as you can reasonably get to because that's your starting point for a new round of exponential growth. The smaller that number is, the longer you have until things get bad again and the less time and social distancing that will be necessary to get things under control again.
A decrease in the number of new cases (or hospitalizations or deaths) should be just one of the signals for re-opening. For whatever measure you use, you should also want as low as number as you can reasonably get to because that's your starting point for a new round of exponential growth. The smaller that number is, the longer you have until things get bad again and the less time and social distancing that will be necessary to get things under control again.
