This is a big question for my household, because I want my kids to go to school when it is safe, I want my schools to make things safer (no PE, staggered arrivals, increased spacing, outdoor seating when possible, etc), but I don’t want schools to reopen if it is unsafe.
I think the paper is much more circumspect in its results than the tweeted summary.
If the case numbers are contained with ample testing and tracing this fall, with another 4 months of learning to create safer environments, I still suspect we may be able to open primary schools in a modified format in the Bay Area in the fall.
The authors say
“The viral loads observed in the present study, combined with earlier findings of similar attack rate between children and adults (2 ) , suggest that transmission potential in schools and kindergartens should be evaluated using the same assumptions of infectivity as for adults. There are reasons to argue against the notion of adult-like infectivity in children, such as the fact that asymptomatic children do not spread the virus by coughing, and have smaller exhaled air volume than adults. However, there are other arguments that speak in favour of transmission, such as the greater physical activity and closer social engagement of children. We recommend collecting and evaluating more viral load data from testing laboratories to achieve more robust statistical assessments and independent confirmation of the present results. Based on the absence of any statistical evidence for a different viral load profile in children found in the present study, we have to caution against an unlimited re-opening of schools and kindergartens in the present situation, with a widely susceptible population and the necessity to keep transmission rates low via non-pharmaceutical interventions. Children may be as infectious as adults.”
I think the paper is much more circumspect in its results than the tweeted summary.
If the case numbers are contained with ample testing and tracing this fall, with another 4 months of learning to create safer environments, I still suspect we may be able to open primary schools in a modified format in the Bay Area in the fall.
The authors say
“The viral loads observed in the present study, combined with earlier findings of similar attack rate between children and adults (2 ) , suggest that transmission potential in schools and kindergartens should be evaluated using the same assumptions of infectivity as for adults. There are reasons to argue against the notion of adult-like infectivity in children, such as the fact that asymptomatic children do not spread the virus by coughing, and have smaller exhaled air volume than adults. However, there are other arguments that speak in favour of transmission, such as the greater physical activity and closer social engagement of children. We recommend collecting and evaluating more viral load data from testing laboratories to achieve more robust statistical assessments and independent confirmation of the present results. Based on the absence of any statistical evidence for a different viral load profile in children found in the present study, we have to caution against an unlimited re-opening of schools and kindergartens in the present situation, with a widely susceptible population and the necessity to keep transmission rates low via non-pharmaceutical interventions. Children may be as infectious as adults.”