04-30-2020, 09:07 AM
Those who discounted to value of the IHME modeling appear to have been correct. It was last updated on April 29 according to its website.
It predicted just 1,266 deaths on April 30. The numbers are in, and the U.S. actually had 2,390 deaths reported. Only off by over 1,000 dead people. We also know deaths are being underreported, strictly based on current mortality rates vs. historical ones. So even the model data isn't very good.
It's really hard to imagine not having at least 100,000 deaths at this point, but IHME predicts "only" 72,000 by August. We're at over 62,000 on April 30. Hard to imagine just 10,000 in May considering we're adding 10,000+ deaths per week now. Even Spain and Italy are still averaging 300-400 deaths per day, we are way bigger, and I don't believe are implementing as many NPIs as they are.
Meanwhile, Czech Republic reported 0 deaths on April 29, 0 deaths today, and only 77 cases over the two days. It's almost like mask wearing really helps reduce spread and viral load of those who do become infected, so they don't die from Covid-19.
It predicted just 1,266 deaths on April 30. The numbers are in, and the U.S. actually had 2,390 deaths reported. Only off by over 1,000 dead people. We also know deaths are being underreported, strictly based on current mortality rates vs. historical ones. So even the model data isn't very good.
It's really hard to imagine not having at least 100,000 deaths at this point, but IHME predicts "only" 72,000 by August. We're at over 62,000 on April 30. Hard to imagine just 10,000 in May considering we're adding 10,000+ deaths per week now. Even Spain and Italy are still averaging 300-400 deaths per day, we are way bigger, and I don't believe are implementing as many NPIs as they are.
Meanwhile, Czech Republic reported 0 deaths on April 29, 0 deaths today, and only 77 cases over the two days. It's almost like mask wearing really helps reduce spread and viral load of those who do become infected, so they don't die from Covid-19.