[OutsiderFan]

I (and a lot of others) have been saying since March that IHME is useless and should be ignored. 

Those who discounted to value of the IHME modeling appear to have been correct. It was last updated on April 29 according to its website.  

Also, it's not a model.

Yet the Federal Government, and likely the States, are using it as guidance. I actually believe the calls to open things up are in some meaningful measure being driven by the IHME projections. So not only is it incorrect, it might actually be setting us up for a worse result than we would have if it didn't exist.

That begs the question: If not the IHME, what do we have that provides the most accurate future projections? I have not once believed we are having waves. I have always believed there will be a rise to a plateau with NPIs in place, and then when the NPIs are relaxed, the growth will continue from the previous plateau. We have a long, long time before the virus gets through everyone without a vaccine that works.

[OutsiderFan]

I (and a lot of others) have been saying since March that IHME is useless and should be ignored. 

Those who discounted to value of the IHME modeling appear to have been correct. It was last updated on April 29 according to its website.  

Also, it's not a model.

Yet the Federal Government, and likely the States, are using it as guidance. I actually believe the calls to open things up are in some meaningful measure being driven by the IHME projections. So not only is it incorrect, it might actually be setting us up for a worse result than we would have if it didn't exist.

That begs the question: If not the IHME, what do we have that provides the most accurate future projections? I have not once believed we are having waves. I have always believed there will be a rise to a plateau with NPIs in place, and then when the NPIs are relaxed, the growth will continue from the previous plateau. We have a long, long time before the virus gets through everyone without a vaccine that works.