04-30-2020, 11:05 AM
For those who are interested, I strongly recommend you listen to the 538 Politics Model Talk episode in which they interview Dr. Chris Murray, who created the projections.
At around the 16 minute mark, what was very surprising to learn, and what I had never heard before, was that the White House's March 31st announcement that they were estimating 100k-240k deaths in the first wave was NOT based on the IHME estimates. Indeed, the source of that estimate has never been made public, so no one actually knows how the White House got those numbers.
Here's more on why folks were initially skeptical of that forecast:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/saddamscribe/status/1245936961233096706?s=20[/tweet]
Indeed, Murray noted around the 18-minute mark, that confusingly, the White House, after stating the 100k-240k deaths estimate, put a slide of the IHME estimate on the screen in discussing flattening the curve, which has led many in the media to confuse the White House's estimate as being based on the IHME forecast, which it has never been. Moreover, Murray also noted that the 100-240k forecast had no time indicator on the axis, so it was never made clear over what period of time that forecast was estimating the death count.
FWIW, the initial estimated forecast from the IHME was 35k-150k with the mean of the distribution being 81k, which doesn't seem wildly off base. Murray explained later in the same podcast that the primary error in the initial forecast was due to estimates for hospital demand that were based on CDC data that was wildly overestimating the % of COVID-19 patients who need hospitalization.
After listening to this podcast, my suspicion, sadly, is that the White House cooked up a very high estimated range so that they could later claim to have come in under the estimates. And unless they release the source of their forecast, it's impossible to disprove that.
At around the 16 minute mark, what was very surprising to learn, and what I had never heard before, was that the White House's March 31st announcement that they were estimating 100k-240k deaths in the first wave was NOT based on the IHME estimates. Indeed, the source of that estimate has never been made public, so no one actually knows how the White House got those numbers.
Here's more on why folks were initially skeptical of that forecast:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/saddamscribe/status/1245936961233096706?s=20[/tweet]
Quote:White House officials have refused to explain how they generated the figure — a death toll bigger than the United States suffered in the Vietnam War or the 9/11 terrorist attacks. They have not provided the underlying data so others can assess its reliability or provided long-term strategies to lower that death count.
Indeed, Murray noted around the 18-minute mark, that confusingly, the White House, after stating the 100k-240k deaths estimate, put a slide of the IHME estimate on the screen in discussing flattening the curve, which has led many in the media to confuse the White House's estimate as being based on the IHME forecast, which it has never been. Moreover, Murray also noted that the 100-240k forecast had no time indicator on the axis, so it was never made clear over what period of time that forecast was estimating the death count.
FWIW, the initial estimated forecast from the IHME was 35k-150k with the mean of the distribution being 81k, which doesn't seem wildly off base. Murray explained later in the same podcast that the primary error in the initial forecast was due to estimates for hospital demand that were based on CDC data that was wildly overestimating the % of COVID-19 patients who need hospitalization.
After listening to this podcast, my suspicion, sadly, is that the White House cooked up a very high estimated range so that they could later claim to have come in under the estimates. And unless they release the source of their forecast, it's impossible to disprove that.