[BostonCard]

A couple points.  Trump repeatedly minimized the severity of the disease up until the model was presented.  If the administration was guilty of sandbagging, Trump seems to have sabotaged those efforts.  More likely, I could see that the somewhat pessimistic internal assessment might have been aimed squarely at Trump, in an effort to get him to take the pandemic seriously.

Thanks for relaying the info 2006alum.  My vague recollection was that when the estimates were announced, it was quoted as a model "similar to" or "based on" the IMHE estimate.  My guess is that they were prepared internally by experts at the CDC.  I also don't think they were necessarily really sandbagging.  The estimates put forward by the administration were squarely within the mainstream of estimates.  They didn't use the Imperial College predictions, which they easily could have met.  For example, fivethirtyeight had a summary of all the estimates:



To my view, the White House estimate appears to be right smack in the middle of the prediction models, and overlaps most of them.

(link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bes...far-apart/)

BC

[BostonCard]

A couple points.  Trump repeatedly minimized the severity of the disease up until the model was presented.  If the administration was guilty of sandbagging, Trump seems to have sabotaged those efforts.  More likely, I could see that the somewhat pessimistic internal assessment might have been aimed squarely at Trump, in an effort to get him to take the pandemic seriously.

Thanks for relaying the info 2006alum.  My vague recollection was that when the estimates were announced, it was quoted as a model "similar to" or "based on" the IMHE estimate.  My guess is that they were prepared internally by experts at the CDC.  I also don't think they were necessarily really sandbagging.  The estimates put forward by the administration were squarely within the mainstream of estimates.  They didn't use the Imperial College predictions, which they easily could have met.  For example, fivethirtyeight had a summary of all the estimates:



To my view, the White House estimate appears to be right smack in the middle of the prediction models, and overlaps most of them.

(link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bes...far-apart/)

BC