[2006alum]

I found this pre-print from March by researchers working on the IMHE model (I beg forgiveness if that's the incorrect term...), but can't swear to its authenticity.

Looking at the state data (very last page), the numbers mostly didn't/haven't matched up with what we know so far.

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/...2020_4.pdf

Perhaps, but the initial projection still seems relatively in the ballpark: "We estimate 81,114 (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) deaths in the United States from COVID-19 over the next 4 months." And many of the individual state estimates don't seem too far off.

One thing that's worth mentioning again is that they made their initial projections for hospital usage and ICU usage on the basis of CDC figures that were later shown to be wildly too high, and so all of their early estimates for hospital and ICU usage were far too high. But I think their deaths estimates have held up pretty well, all things considered.

[2006alum]

I found this pre-print from March by researchers working on the IMHE model (I beg forgiveness if that's the incorrect term...), but can't swear to its authenticity.

Looking at the state data (very last page), the numbers mostly didn't/haven't matched up with what we know so far.

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/...2020_4.pdf

Perhaps, but the initial projection still seems relatively in the ballpark: "We estimate 81,114 (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) deaths in the United States from COVID-19 over the next 4 months." And many of the individual state estimates don't seem too far off.

One thing that's worth mentioning again is that they made their initial projections for hospital usage and ICU usage on the basis of CDC figures that were later shown to be wildly too high, and so all of their early estimates for hospital and ICU usage were far too high. But I think their deaths estimates have held up pretty well, all things considered.