05-02-2020, 08:01 AM
(05-02-2020, 03:47 AM)M T Wrote: This report lays out why the authors feel that
1) automated contact tracing will require too high a participation rate
2) the fact that contact tracing has worked for other diseases may not be applicable for COViD-19
The report is very interesting IMHO because it is the first such report I have seen that addresses the effect of presymptomatic transmission on the efficiency of contact tracing. There are two assumptions in our plans to return to "normal": 1) We can organize an effective contact tracing effort (a fact not yet in evidence) and 2) This effort can at a minimum keep the incidence of the disease "low enough" that it will not expand exponentially again. If the second assumption is wrong, we are in real trouble. The fact Taiwan, HK, and Korea have managed to do so is encouraging, but it certainly isn't as simple as most of our previous experiences.
