[2006alum]

They way I read it is we're either f|_|cked, or we're f|_|cked:

So on the one hand:

Keeping stay at home orders in place would result in a growth contraction of 11.6% year over year, the data found, but opening the states would curb some of that decline somewhat, paring back the downturn to 10.1% year over year.

However, Wharton’s data found that the state lockdowns will result in a more dramatic increase in unemployment, boosting the total of unemployed to nearly 50 million. A partial reopening would partly blunt that impact, but not by much.

But on the other:

According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), reopening states will result in an additional 233,000 deaths from the virus — even if states don’t reopen at all and with social distancing rules in place. This means that if the states were to reopen, 350,000 people in total would die from coronavirus by the end of June, the study found.

So the only wiggle room is toggling between an additional 120,000 lives vs. blunting 1.5 percentage points of additional economic loss and "blunting the impact, but not by much" of an additional ~20 million job losses.

Is it 5 p.m. yet?

[2006alum]

They way I read it is we're either f|_|cked, or we're f|_|cked:

So on the one hand:

Keeping stay at home orders in place would result in a growth contraction of 11.6% year over year, the data found, but opening the states would curb some of that decline somewhat, paring back the downturn to 10.1% year over year.

However, Wharton’s data found that the state lockdowns will result in a more dramatic increase in unemployment, boosting the total of unemployed to nearly 50 million. A partial reopening would partly blunt that impact, but not by much.

But on the other:

According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), reopening states will result in an additional 233,000 deaths from the virus — even if states don’t reopen at all and with social distancing rules in place. This means that if the states were to reopen, 350,000 people in total would die from coronavirus by the end of June, the study found.

So the only wiggle room is toggling between an additional 120,000 lives vs. blunting 1.5 percentage points of additional economic loss and "blunting the impact, but not by much" of an additional ~20 million job losses.

Is it 5 p.m. yet?