05-04-2020, 02:34 PM
The models all have one big problem.
The subjects learn the projections and then make lifestyle adjustments because of those projections.
When the models were up around 240,000 and many people thought it was 15 going to 0 or just a bad season flu death total (~50,000) they were shocked to action. As a result more governors issued stay-at-home, more citizens actually stopped.
The original projections assumed 50% compliance, so as more people were motivated to comply it looked like the USA might land on the low end of projections. POTUS was more ambitious and declared the virus death tally might be only 60,000.
However, that good news in the model updates motivated many Governors and citizens to ditch safer-at-home and social distancing. Given many USA citizens will now stop social distancing the models need to be adjusted to higher death totals.
The subjects learn the projections and then make lifestyle adjustments because of those projections.
When the models were up around 240,000 and many people thought it was 15 going to 0 or just a bad season flu death total (~50,000) they were shocked to action. As a result more governors issued stay-at-home, more citizens actually stopped.
The original projections assumed 50% compliance, so as more people were motivated to comply it looked like the USA might land on the low end of projections. POTUS was more ambitious and declared the virus death tally might be only 60,000.
However, that good news in the model updates motivated many Governors and citizens to ditch safer-at-home and social distancing. Given many USA citizens will now stop social distancing the models need to be adjusted to higher death totals.