05-05-2020, 02:12 PM
The new cases per day statistics of the US are the sum many different areas that are in different phases of the outbreak. It may be the ones that are on the upswing balance out the downswing in New York and keep the curve more constant than one would expect. Eventually these lagging areas will go down as well.
However, that said, the Northern California data is not dropping off very fast. We are in a plateau, and have been for a while. San Mateo county 7 day moving average is stuck at in the 25-27 range. I think the other counties are doing somewhat the same thing. Santa Clara Country has said they are tracking none of the cases in their county, so we have no insight into what is going on with the plateau effect there. It is a bit of a worry.
However, that said, the Northern California data is not dropping off very fast. We are in a plateau, and have been for a while. San Mateo county 7 day moving average is stuck at in the 25-27 range. I think the other counties are doing somewhat the same thing. Santa Clara Country has said they are tracking none of the cases in their county, so we have no insight into what is going on with the plateau effect there. It is a bit of a worry.