[BostonCard]

It's a matter of numbers.  Let's say that the actual local infection rate is 1 in 10,000.  The chances that at least one person in the stands is infected (even if attendance is sparse, say 25,000) is 81%.  The chance that at least one player is infected (if there are 85 on each team) is 2% and probably less because at least for players, the assumption of independence is not valid (that is, if one player is infected, probably more than one are, so it is not really 130 independent draws).

Secondly, there is the fact that mortality among college aged students is going to be very low.  Mortality among fans is going to be higher, potentially much higher depending on the fans' demographics.

I'm not arguing that football should restart; I think we need to see what the data shows.

BC

[BostonCard]

It's a matter of numbers.  Let's say that the actual local infection rate is 1 in 10,000.  The chances that at least one person in the stands is infected (even if attendance is sparse, say 25,000) is 81%.  The chance that at least one player is infected (if there are 85 on each team) is 2% and probably less because at least for players, the assumption of independence is not valid (that is, if one player is infected, probably more than one are, so it is not really 130 independent draws).

Secondly, there is the fact that mortality among college aged students is going to be very low.  Mortality among fans is going to be higher, potentially much higher depending on the fans' demographics.

I'm not arguing that football should restart; I think we need to see what the data shows.

BC