[82 Card]

POTUS said in last 24 hours he thought 95,000 deaths.
I had to do a double take on the CNN total at the time as it was already at 78K.   Worldometers is closing in on 80K for the USA.

Given the level of denial in soon-to-be hot spots I would guess USA will be at 110,000 by end of May.   

The tally beyond ~3 weeks from now would depend on what choices Governors take once they see hospitalizations increasing.

That's pretty optimistic. Worldometers is currently at 80,037.  There are 22 days left in the month. To hit 110,000 at the end of the month, the average daily body count for the rest of the month would have to be 1,362. Looking at FT charts, the 7 day average has been around 1,800. The new case average has been going down, dropping about 16% in last 15 days. If the average daily death rate drops at the same rate for the rest of the month, it would just about reach 1,362 by the end of the month. Although we have had relatively low numbers today, I don't expect that to continue for the whole month. The deaths in the next couple of weeks are going to be mostly from the cases already in the can. The case totals have been boosted by increased testing but I haven't seen anything indicating that the testing has been so wonderful that we should expect a collapse in the mortality rate.

[82 Card]

POTUS said in last 24 hours he thought 95,000 deaths.
I had to do a double take on the CNN total at the time as it was already at 78K.   Worldometers is closing in on 80K for the USA.

Given the level of denial in soon-to-be hot spots I would guess USA will be at 110,000 by end of May.   

The tally beyond ~3 weeks from now would depend on what choices Governors take once they see hospitalizations increasing.

That's pretty optimistic. Worldometers is currently at 80,037.  There are 22 days left in the month. To hit 110,000 at the end of the month, the average daily body count for the rest of the month would have to be 1,362. Looking at FT charts, the 7 day average has been around 1,800. The new case average has been going down, dropping about 16% in last 15 days. If the average daily death rate drops at the same rate for the rest of the month, it would just about reach 1,362 by the end of the month. Although we have had relatively low numbers today, I don't expect that to continue for the whole month. The deaths in the next couple of weeks are going to be mostly from the cases already in the can. The case totals have been boosted by increased testing but I haven't seen anything indicating that the testing has been so wonderful that we should expect a collapse in the mortality rate.