Related to exponential growing slowly at first: in Georgia, what a dangerous set of openings does is it enables mass-spreading events, but that does not guarantee that it will happen in any particular timeline.
I think of that small cafe in Northern California that violated SIP restrictions by permitting what looks like 50 dine-in customers at a time to pack into their very small room. But the case counts on that county are so low that no one positive may eat there the first day, the first week, the first two months. But unless Covid is exterminated from that town permanently, eventually, someone infectious will dine in that tiny, packed little restaurant and infect 30 people, and then that small town will be in trouble.
I’m glad to hear Georgians are not packing together although their governor has permitted gyms and movie theatres to re-open. Additionally, no new movies have been released, which limits the risk from theatres. After a Shelter-In-Place is lifted, maybe no one in a theatre or gym is infectious, in every gym and theatre, day after day. But they’re permitting some dangerous spaces re-open. Without any changes, eventually, one day, a very infectious person will be dining inside a restaurant, then may go to a semi-crowded gym, and may infect their hairdresser. 20-50 people may be infected from a theatre (depending on how crowded and how well ventilated it was), and then those 20-50 people have, under Georgia’s loose rules, the choice to go to another somewhat crowded venue and to have close contact at salons.
It may take a while, but permitting mass spread and close contact venues means it could happen at any time. Movie theatres should not open until case counts are much, much lower with terrific testing and contact tracing in place. With still relatively high case counts and venues like movie theatres being open, all it takes is one unfortunate super-active, super social, pre-symptomatic spark.
I think of that small cafe in Northern California that violated SIP restrictions by permitting what looks like 50 dine-in customers at a time to pack into their very small room. But the case counts on that county are so low that no one positive may eat there the first day, the first week, the first two months. But unless Covid is exterminated from that town permanently, eventually, someone infectious will dine in that tiny, packed little restaurant and infect 30 people, and then that small town will be in trouble.
I’m glad to hear Georgians are not packing together although their governor has permitted gyms and movie theatres to re-open. Additionally, no new movies have been released, which limits the risk from theatres. After a Shelter-In-Place is lifted, maybe no one in a theatre or gym is infectious, in every gym and theatre, day after day. But they’re permitting some dangerous spaces re-open. Without any changes, eventually, one day, a very infectious person will be dining inside a restaurant, then may go to a semi-crowded gym, and may infect their hairdresser. 20-50 people may be infected from a theatre (depending on how crowded and how well ventilated it was), and then those 20-50 people have, under Georgia’s loose rules, the choice to go to another somewhat crowded venue and to have close contact at salons.
It may take a while, but permitting mass spread and close contact venues means it could happen at any time. Movie theatres should not open until case counts are much, much lower with terrific testing and contact tracing in place. With still relatively high case counts and venues like movie theatres being open, all it takes is one unfortunate super-active, super social, pre-symptomatic spark.