[M T]

In my job, I basically get coughed on every day of the year. Or at least the equivalent. Kids touching my face with saliva covered hands. Sneezing on me. Crying at me with a wide open mouth. I'm going to be really interested in the infection rate among Pediatricians. Many have not been working for two months, but things seem to be picking up.

On Friday, someone, unofficially (hence "someone"), indicated the infection rate (ever infected, not currently infectious) of tested staff at a Bay Area hospital was less than 1% (offered as a counterpoint to the Stanford antibody study).

I've been thinking about the prevalence of the infectiousness for someone you come across in Santa Clara County.  Currently, every day, about 1 in 100,000 people in SCC test positive. Each case is infectious and not in quarantine for about 5 days (a few days before symptoms + a few days after symptoms before realizing you are really sick).   So, about 1 in 20,000 people you might run into is infectious. If the 1 in 100K are all symptomatic, and if there is as many new asymptomatic cases as new symptomatic, and we assume the asymptomatic are infectious for 10 days, then 1 in 6,700 people are infectious.    That's all back-of-the-envelope, rough calculations.

[M T]

In my job, I basically get coughed on every day of the year. Or at least the equivalent. Kids touching my face with saliva covered hands. Sneezing on me. Crying at me with a wide open mouth. I'm going to be really interested in the infection rate among Pediatricians. Many have not been working for two months, but things seem to be picking up.

On Friday, someone, unofficially (hence "someone"), indicated the infection rate (ever infected, not currently infectious) of tested staff at a Bay Area hospital was less than 1% (offered as a counterpoint to the Stanford antibody study).

I've been thinking about the prevalence of the infectiousness for someone you come across in Santa Clara County.  Currently, every day, about 1 in 100,000 people in SCC test positive. Each case is infectious and not in quarantine for about 5 days (a few days before symptoms + a few days after symptoms before realizing you are really sick).   So, about 1 in 20,000 people you might run into is infectious. If the 1 in 100K are all symptomatic, and if there is as many new asymptomatic cases as new symptomatic, and we assume the asymptomatic are infectious for 10 days, then 1 in 6,700 people are infectious.    That's all back-of-the-envelope, rough calculations.