[Farm93]

Like I said, deflation right around the corner... ;)

Never understood your worry about inflation.   The medical and corresponding economic uncertainties will create an incentive for savings unknown in the USA for decades.

Several major sectors of the economy are in serious trouble.   Not coincidentally, many of them are industries that thrive on discretionary income (autos, airlines, hotels, etc.), so we won't see inflationary pressures from any of those segments.   And the housing market will be crushed for too many reasons to note.  

Historically inflation is a function of wage pressures.   Well, last I checked there is a very large portion of the workforce that needs to find work even if the pay is a mere fraction of their prior wage rate.  Companies doing well have to know they don't need to offer generous wages to keep their employees, even if their employees could easily interview for new jobs.

Those forces are very deflationary in nature.   We aren't seeing that pandemic related deflationary pressure because of all the "cheap" money issued by the Fed and Congress.   

When a vaccine is identified and if it issued rapidly to 75+% of our population then LOOK OUT!   The drive for emergency savings will end and it could be coupled with pent up demand for all types of leisure and luxury goods.  That's a nice mix of events to create inflation, though even then it will be offset by the massive unemployment in the workforce and devastated retail real estate sector.

I think the only way inflation really impacts the USA in 2020 will be if the virus magically and definitively goes away in days as POTUS45 has predicted a few times.   While inflation would be a problem in that scenario given all the cheap money floating around, I think all of us would take that problem over COVID19 dominating life on the planet until 2022.

[Farm93]

Like I said, deflation right around the corner... ;)

Never understood your worry about inflation.   The medical and corresponding economic uncertainties will create an incentive for savings unknown in the USA for decades.

Several major sectors of the economy are in serious trouble.   Not coincidentally, many of them are industries that thrive on discretionary income (autos, airlines, hotels, etc.), so we won't see inflationary pressures from any of those segments.   And the housing market will be crushed for too many reasons to note.  

Historically inflation is a function of wage pressures.   Well, last I checked there is a very large portion of the workforce that needs to find work even if the pay is a mere fraction of their prior wage rate.  Companies doing well have to know they don't need to offer generous wages to keep their employees, even if their employees could easily interview for new jobs.

Those forces are very deflationary in nature.   We aren't seeing that pandemic related deflationary pressure because of all the "cheap" money issued by the Fed and Congress.   

When a vaccine is identified and if it issued rapidly to 75+% of our population then LOOK OUT!   The drive for emergency savings will end and it could be coupled with pent up demand for all types of leisure and luxury goods.  That's a nice mix of events to create inflation, though even then it will be offset by the massive unemployment in the workforce and devastated retail real estate sector.

I think the only way inflation really impacts the USA in 2020 will be if the virus magically and definitively goes away in days as POTUS45 has predicted a few times.   While inflation would be a problem in that scenario given all the cheap money floating around, I think all of us would take that problem over COVID19 dominating life on the planet until 2022.