[Mick]

The good news is that generally speaking, America's labor force is more dynamic and tends to bounce back much faster than other country's.  But you do wonder if we have a problem with employment fragility in the US.

BC

I think we have significant employment fragility after a dozen years of growth.  American business ownership is, right now, undergoing a massive experiment to see how efficient they can become, and how much money they can make with, literally, as few workers as possible.  And they are finding out -- well, what they've known all along -- is that labor costs are very, very expensive.

So those jobs aren't coming back.  Hospitality & Leisure?  Jobs are gone.  Restaurants?  Jobs are gone.  Manual services and agriculture?  In decline.  Retail?  Retail dropped like a rock, far more than experts believed:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/us-retai...-2020.html

Seeya.  Wholesale?  Also gone. Durable goods?  Fuhgeddaboutit.  Professional services?  Well, massive layoffs in my business, for sure.  And on and on.

But it isn't just the RIFs.  The remaining employees, across the board have taken pay cuts.  Budgets have been cut.  Payables have been lengthened.  Deflation is here, thanks to the reduced velocity of money.  People aren't spending.

[Mick]

The good news is that generally speaking, America's labor force is more dynamic and tends to bounce back much faster than other country's.  But you do wonder if we have a problem with employment fragility in the US.

BC

I think we have significant employment fragility after a dozen years of growth.  American business ownership is, right now, undergoing a massive experiment to see how efficient they can become, and how much money they can make with, literally, as few workers as possible.  And they are finding out -- well, what they've known all along -- is that labor costs are very, very expensive.

So those jobs aren't coming back.  Hospitality & Leisure?  Jobs are gone.  Restaurants?  Jobs are gone.  Manual services and agriculture?  In decline.  Retail?  Retail dropped like a rock, far more than experts believed:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/us-retai...-2020.html

Seeya.  Wholesale?  Also gone. Durable goods?  Fuhgeddaboutit.  Professional services?  Well, massive layoffs in my business, for sure.  And on and on.

But it isn't just the RIFs.  The remaining employees, across the board have taken pay cuts.  Budgets have been cut.  Payables have been lengthened.  Deflation is here, thanks to the reduced velocity of money.  People aren't spending.