05-15-2020, 07:50 PM
The plot of employment growth in "recovery" doesn't look promising for the last three recessions.
Here's my guess. We peak at about 20% unemployment after the June unemployment report. Then we see re-hiring of 1/4 to 1/2 of the jobs lost over the rest of the year, as some businesses reopen and or rehire some of their laid off workers. That would put the unemployment rate in the 12 - 15% range by the end of the year. The rest are gone for good, and then we are looking at a long, slow recovery. Even picking up 200,000 jobs a month, as we did during the recovery from the Great Recession, it will take 135 months (that is, over 11 years) to get back to the pre-Corona employment level (and that doesn't even take into account the growth in the size of the labor force). As I said, we are looking at a "lost decade".
BC
Here's my guess. We peak at about 20% unemployment after the June unemployment report. Then we see re-hiring of 1/4 to 1/2 of the jobs lost over the rest of the year, as some businesses reopen and or rehire some of their laid off workers. That would put the unemployment rate in the 12 - 15% range by the end of the year. The rest are gone for good, and then we are looking at a long, slow recovery. Even picking up 200,000 jobs a month, as we did during the recovery from the Great Recession, it will take 135 months (that is, over 11 years) to get back to the pre-Corona employment level (and that doesn't even take into account the growth in the size of the labor force). As I said, we are looking at a "lost decade".
BC