[Snorlax94]

I think it becomes an emotional thing and can be skewed by one’s experience.

For my part, I think I stayed over 30 nights total in a hotel last year, including a couple conferences. I watched close to 30 movies in the theatres. I watched at least 6 Stanford football games in-person. On March 16, all of those went to $0.

But I expect at some point in 2021, I expect the spending will return to previous levels, if not higher due to pent up enthusiasm.

Assuming I feel a restaurant is safe, I could see my family returning to pre-lockdown levels of eating out by June or July. There will be a lot more take-out, more eating outdoors, and absolutely no indoor dining.

And many many Americans are less cautious than me — I bet by summer many Americans will be going to theme parks and movies, while I’ll wait until a safer situation (whether by vaccine, effective treatment, or herd immunity).

I think Goldman’s economic estimates were the most objective and dispassionate and they were looking at the whole economy and not expanding from the perspective of one industry. Not intending to brush off anyone’s individual situation, but as a whole, I think Goldman’s estimate that by Q4 2020, the GDP will be about 3-4% below Q4 2019 should be close to right, although if we keep being dumb, if consumers are afraid due to a lack of testing, tracing, protective measures and competence, we will stretch the pain out longer.

So many people I talk to can’t wait to resume the activities in their life that they look forward to. The runners want to run in big marathons. The movie goers want to go to movies. Eaters wanna eat. Travelers yearn to travel. Parents can’t wait to dump off their kids in summer camps so someone else will be watching them. Some of this can happen in 2020, and probably the rest can start happening in 2021. I’d be surprised if in 2022 the economy is not larger and employment is not greater than 2019, barring some further catastrophe like a war, or a mass refusal by the American public to be vaccinated, etc., which are both possibilities.

[Snorlax94]

I think it becomes an emotional thing and can be skewed by one’s experience.

For my part, I think I stayed over 30 nights total in a hotel last year, including a couple conferences. I watched close to 30 movies in the theatres. I watched at least 6 Stanford football games in-person. On March 16, all of those went to $0.

But I expect at some point in 2021, I expect the spending will return to previous levels, if not higher due to pent up enthusiasm.

Assuming I feel a restaurant is safe, I could see my family returning to pre-lockdown levels of eating out by June or July. There will be a lot more take-out, more eating outdoors, and absolutely no indoor dining.

And many many Americans are less cautious than me — I bet by summer many Americans will be going to theme parks and movies, while I’ll wait until a safer situation (whether by vaccine, effective treatment, or herd immunity).

I think Goldman’s economic estimates were the most objective and dispassionate and they were looking at the whole economy and not expanding from the perspective of one industry. Not intending to brush off anyone’s individual situation, but as a whole, I think Goldman’s estimate that by Q4 2020, the GDP will be about 3-4% below Q4 2019 should be close to right, although if we keep being dumb, if consumers are afraid due to a lack of testing, tracing, protective measures and competence, we will stretch the pain out longer.

So many people I talk to can’t wait to resume the activities in their life that they look forward to. The runners want to run in big marathons. The movie goers want to go to movies. Eaters wanna eat. Travelers yearn to travel. Parents can’t wait to dump off their kids in summer camps so someone else will be watching them. Some of this can happen in 2020, and probably the rest can start happening in 2021. I’d be surprised if in 2022 the economy is not larger and employment is not greater than 2019, barring some further catastrophe like a war, or a mass refusal by the American public to be vaccinated, etc., which are both possibilities.