[Goose]

I think there is evidence that θ is on the order of 50% for COVID-19 (might be as low as 25%, or as high and possibly even higher than 75%).  R[0] is estimated at 2-3, so plugging in 2.5, you get 1.2.  Thus, isolation only of symptomatic patients wouldn't be expected to work, and you are going to have to find and isolate some asymptomatic patients.  Fortunately, you don't have to isolate all asymptomatic patients, just enough to break enough transmission chains to bring R below 1.


BC

Yes, and to do that efficiently you will have to isolate some asymptomatic but "probable" contacts of a known positive. That won't go down well with the public at large if it is not properly explained and/or enforced. So far, no evidence of either locally. That worries me a lot, because the Health Officers must know this is an issue.

[Goose]

I think there is evidence that θ is on the order of 50% for COVID-19 (might be as low as 25%, or as high and possibly even higher than 75%).  R[0] is estimated at 2-3, so plugging in 2.5, you get 1.2.  Thus, isolation only of symptomatic patients wouldn't be expected to work, and you are going to have to find and isolate some asymptomatic patients.  Fortunately, you don't have to isolate all asymptomatic patients, just enough to break enough transmission chains to bring R below 1.


BC

Yes, and to do that efficiently you will have to isolate some asymptomatic but "probable" contacts of a known positive. That won't go down well with the public at large if it is not properly explained and/or enforced. So far, no evidence of either locally. That worries me a lot, because the Health Officers must know this is an issue.