05-21-2020, 12:12 PM
I think many people in places that avoided the worst of it don't realize how close they were to big problems. California was on a very steep curve for cases and hospitalizations, the same shape as NYC or Italy. If we had another week of growth before activity clamped down (whether via SIP orders or people reading the news of NBA getting cancelled etc), we would have been in the same boat. Thankfully, just as predicted, between 2 and 3 weeks after SIP, the curve flattened. California didn't avoid NYC's outcome because of weather or density. We avoided it because of the lockdown. I'm not sure people understand that.
