[M T]

I agree that lockdown realistically could not have been accomplished earlier, given the lack of available testing. Had testing been ramped up earlier, the evidence would have been there to lock down earlier.

What does testing have to do with it?  Suppose it was known there were two deaths in Santa Clara County as of Feb. 17?  Do you think the public would have been willing to shutdown the county?  the state?  Do you think NYC would have shutdown, or Washington State would have been testing their retirement centers?

The evidence was there in China.  It took the unfortunate cluster of deaths in the retirement center in Washington State to make people realize that it can happen here.  Maybe there are those that think actors & athletes are our models for rational behavior, but I'd like to think that is just media machines at work.

[M T]

I agree that lockdown realistically could not have been accomplished earlier, given the lack of available testing. Had testing been ramped up earlier, the evidence would have been there to lock down earlier.

What does testing have to do with it?  Suppose it was known there were two deaths in Santa Clara County as of Feb. 17?  Do you think the public would have been willing to shutdown the county?  the state?  Do you think NYC would have shutdown, or Washington State would have been testing their retirement centers?

The evidence was there in China.  It took the unfortunate cluster of deaths in the retirement center in Washington State to make people realize that it can happen here.  Maybe there are those that think actors & athletes are our models for rational behavior, but I'd like to think that is just media machines at work.