I posted this same study here but no one else responded. If they're right, one important thing is that we need to worry more about superspreading events/individuals, rather than more low-key person to person transmission. Given that early conference in Boston, Mardi Gras in New Orleans, and several churches, choirs, and funerals, there's a possible emerging picture that most transmission occurs when a virally shedding individual is in a confined or crowded space for an extended period of time such that they can expose numerous others to it.
Now of course, it's much easier to identify these super-spreading events than the lower-key transmission from one household member to another, but given that many places that are reopening are not yet seeing a significant increase in new cases even several weeks in, that suggests to me that the highest risk economic activities may be the ones that have yet to re-open: concerts, movie theaters, conferences, parties, crowded indoor restaurants, schools, etc.
That suggests that we might be able to keep the transmission at an ~R0 while being able to do 80% of our normal activities with masks, socially distanced, and with other minor inconveniences to quality of life. Apart from schools, air transit, and public transportation, most of the other activities mentioned above, while certainly economically important, are not socially necessary in the next year. But those are three brobdingnagian caveats, and I've been on record for quite a while now as being in disbelief that NYC will be able to resume as normal prior to a vaccine, given the unavoidable social crowding that is the MTA system. Schools, of course, will be another brobdingnagian issue.
Now of course, it's much easier to identify these super-spreading events than the lower-key transmission from one household member to another, but given that many places that are reopening are not yet seeing a significant increase in new cases even several weeks in, that suggests to me that the highest risk economic activities may be the ones that have yet to re-open: concerts, movie theaters, conferences, parties, crowded indoor restaurants, schools, etc.
That suggests that we might be able to keep the transmission at an ~R0 while being able to do 80% of our normal activities with masks, socially distanced, and with other minor inconveniences to quality of life. Apart from schools, air transit, and public transportation, most of the other activities mentioned above, while certainly economically important, are not socially necessary in the next year. But those are three brobdingnagian caveats, and I've been on record for quite a while now as being in disbelief that NYC will be able to resume as normal prior to a vaccine, given the unavoidable social crowding that is the MTA system. Schools, of course, will be another brobdingnagian issue.