[stupac2]

Many people in tech are hopeful that this could lead to people getting to spend more days a week working from home -- maybe 2-3 instead of 1. But my prediction is that there are intrinsic, substantial drawbacks to having everyone work from home that will become more apparent over time.

I think it depends on the job. My job is virtually impossible to do from home fully because I interface with hardware, but my wife's seems to be easy enough (PM for an environmental remediation firm). I think that a lot of the software development done by junior staff at these big companies falls more toward the latter, but the actual innovation is the former. So you could end up with a system where the people taking permanent WFH essentially slot themselves as "code monkeys" forever, even if it's with a nice salary.

But agglomeration effects exist for a reason and you can't just wave a magic wand and make them go away. The Bay Area could certainly decline in importance, but it would be due to housing policies restricting growth and a new cluster forming in a better location, not massive amounts of WFH. (And I'm skeptical that would happen within 20 years, it's hard to make new clusters.)

[stupac2]

Many people in tech are hopeful that this could lead to people getting to spend more days a week working from home -- maybe 2-3 instead of 1. But my prediction is that there are intrinsic, substantial drawbacks to having everyone work from home that will become more apparent over time.

I think it depends on the job. My job is virtually impossible to do from home fully because I interface with hardware, but my wife's seems to be easy enough (PM for an environmental remediation firm). I think that a lot of the software development done by junior staff at these big companies falls more toward the latter, but the actual innovation is the former. So you could end up with a system where the people taking permanent WFH essentially slot themselves as "code monkeys" forever, even if it's with a nice salary.

But agglomeration effects exist for a reason and you can't just wave a magic wand and make them go away. The Bay Area could certainly decline in importance, but it would be due to housing policies restricting growth and a new cluster forming in a better location, not massive amounts of WFH. (And I'm skeptical that would happen within 20 years, it's hard to make new clusters.)