[BostonCard]

Not a 'lot of people', just about everybody, including probably the majority of health professionals. (I have mentioned my ultra cautious PCP, at the physical she dragged me to on 2/29, was dismissive - 'just wash your hands'.) Not just Trump, but most Democratic politicians were in the same camp. Op-eds in the NYT and Post emphasized the dangers of xenophobia and were dismissive of the virus - this well into February.


There was no political consensus for these drastic measures until the second week of March. I believe it was the clinical experience in Italy and the cluster sites in the US that changed opinions radically and quickly.

Again, leadership means taking an unpopular position, and convincing others that the danger is real and to take it seriously, not waiting until others have come to that conclusion on their own volition.  Trump has had no problems dismissing the pronouncements of experts, and certainly if op-eds in the NYT and Post influenced his thinking, this would be the first time.

Moreover, this is not the case that Trump was pushing for aggressive measures and "the establishment" was holding him back.  This was a case where as late as February 26, Trump was quoted as saying "We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time." at a White House press conference.  This a month after members of his administration were starting to sound the alarm.
[/url]
First CDC alert Jan 8(!)
Azar briefs the president Jan 18
Intelligence reports Jan 27
Peter Navarro warned that the virus could kill half a million people and cost the economy $6 trillion Jan 29 (and again Feb 23)
Alex Azar declared a public health emergency Jan 31
Senators started warning that the administration wasn't taking it seriously Feb 5
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1225073987639705600?s=20[/tweet]

The taskforce concluded that social distancing was needed Feb 21
The CDC stated it expected community spread in the US Feb 26 (this was when the first case in California with no known contact to China was discovered)
[url=https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html]The cornoavirus claimed its first known life (at the time) Feb 29

Now, let me be clear, I wouldn't have expected Trump to order a nationwide shutdown back in February.  First of all, it was not appropriate, and second of all, he does not have that power.  But there is a lot he could have done differently, starting with at the very least not impeding the public taking the virus seriously by constantly minimizing and dismissing its threat.

There is a ton he could have done back in February to prepare the nation:
1) which is obvious to anyone: prepare the national stockpile; start getting large quantities of PPE.  Work with 3M and other PPE makers and tell them we want to be prepared if the virus comes to the US, so ramp up PPE production; we will buy any excess off you.
2) Develop social distancing guidelines so states aren't guessing blind.  Let states know what they can do and when.  Socialize the idea that we're going to have to make changes to our daily life, so that it is easier for state and local officials to announce shutdowns (especially in red states).
3) Pushing for the CDC and FDA to get their acts together on testing (Azar as head of HHS, which oversees both agencies, should have been fired over this)
4) Requesting funding from congress (see Chris Murphy's tweet Feb 21)
5) Working with state and local officials to cancel large gatherings early.  If Ireland could cancel St. Patrick's Day celebrations, New Orleans could have cancelled Mardi Gras.

Even if he didn't do anything else, just "not impeding" progress to understanding the threat of COVID-19 in the US would have been progress.

Even March 11, when the WHO declared coronavirus to be a pandemic, the NBA cancelled its season, and Tom Hanks and his wife announced he had COVID-19, Trump's solution was to close the barn door after the horse had already escaped by banning travel from Europe (but not the UK).  That was his big response back then.  I think a great leader would have been ahead of the curve here and brought the country with him (or her).  But a merely competent leader wouldn't have been as consistently behind the curve as Trump.

BC

[BostonCard]

Not a 'lot of people', just about everybody, including probably the majority of health professionals. (I have mentioned my ultra cautious PCP, at the physical she dragged me to on 2/29, was dismissive - 'just wash your hands'.) Not just Trump, but most Democratic politicians were in the same camp. Op-eds in the NYT and Post emphasized the dangers of xenophobia and were dismissive of the virus - this well into February.


There was no political consensus for these drastic measures until the second week of March. I believe it was the clinical experience in Italy and the cluster sites in the US that changed opinions radically and quickly.

Again, leadership means taking an unpopular position, and convincing others that the danger is real and to take it seriously, not waiting until others have come to that conclusion on their own volition.  Trump has had no problems dismissing the pronouncements of experts, and certainly if op-eds in the NYT and Post influenced his thinking, this would be the first time.

Moreover, this is not the case that Trump was pushing for aggressive measures and "the establishment" was holding him back.  This was a case where as late as February 26, Trump was quoted as saying "We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time." at a White House press conference.  This a month after members of his administration were starting to sound the alarm.
[/url]
First CDC alert Jan 8(!)
Azar briefs the president Jan 18
Intelligence reports Jan 27
Peter Navarro warned that the virus could kill half a million people and cost the economy $6 trillion Jan 29 (and again Feb 23)
Alex Azar declared a public health emergency Jan 31
Senators started warning that the administration wasn't taking it seriously Feb 5
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1225073987639705600?s=20[/tweet]

The taskforce concluded that social distancing was needed Feb 21
The CDC stated it expected community spread in the US Feb 26 (this was when the first case in California with no known contact to China was discovered)
[url=https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html]The cornoavirus claimed its first known life (at the time) Feb 29

Now, let me be clear, I wouldn't have expected Trump to order a nationwide shutdown back in February.  First of all, it was not appropriate, and second of all, he does not have that power.  But there is a lot he could have done differently, starting with at the very least not impeding the public taking the virus seriously by constantly minimizing and dismissing its threat.

There is a ton he could have done back in February to prepare the nation:
1) which is obvious to anyone: prepare the national stockpile; start getting large quantities of PPE.  Work with 3M and other PPE makers and tell them we want to be prepared if the virus comes to the US, so ramp up PPE production; we will buy any excess off you.
2) Develop social distancing guidelines so states aren't guessing blind.  Let states know what they can do and when.  Socialize the idea that we're going to have to make changes to our daily life, so that it is easier for state and local officials to announce shutdowns (especially in red states).
3) Pushing for the CDC and FDA to get their acts together on testing (Azar as head of HHS, which oversees both agencies, should have been fired over this)
4) Requesting funding from congress (see Chris Murphy's tweet Feb 21)
5) Working with state and local officials to cancel large gatherings early.  If Ireland could cancel St. Patrick's Day celebrations, New Orleans could have cancelled Mardi Gras.

Even if he didn't do anything else, just "not impeding" progress to understanding the threat of COVID-19 in the US would have been progress.

Even March 11, when the WHO declared coronavirus to be a pandemic, the NBA cancelled its season, and Tom Hanks and his wife announced he had COVID-19, Trump's solution was to close the barn door after the horse had already escaped by banning travel from Europe (but not the UK).  That was his big response back then.  I think a great leader would have been ahead of the curve here and brought the country with him (or her).  But a merely competent leader wouldn't have been as consistently behind the curve as Trump.

BC