05-25-2020, 08:12 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-25-2020, 08:14 AM by OutsiderFan.)
As someone who likes to simplify complex things and make simple things complex, let me share a simple thought about the very complex economy.
You can't get out of a hole by digging deeper.
Here's just one example of why we are totally f*cked. The gas and oil industry financed itself on junk bonds. The price of oil went down to the point the companies that sold the bonds couldn't turn a profit or pay back the bond holders. Rather than let the investors who made the bad decisions pay for their mistakes and lose money, the Federal Reserve comes to their rescue. The Fed did this to keep the investors from losing their money and to keep companies going ostensibly so supply wouldn't go down and create spikes in oil prices that would tank the economy. But if these companies continue producing, the price of oil isn't going to go down to make them enough money to ever get off the government tit.
The reality is, printing all the extra money will drive inflation and stop market forces from further pressurizing the fossil fuel energy sector to go to renewables, as the true cost of the oil and gas product is buried. So we not only are creating higher inflationary pressures by printing more money, we're also hiding the cost on the economy of fossil-fuel enabled climate change, while refusing to let investors lose.
You just can't continue trying to get out of financial and economic trouble by continuing to go further into debt. Eventually the cost has to be realized by the market. These oil and gas companies eventually have to take a big hit. It can't be put off forever, and the longer it takes, the worse it will be for them and the greater economy when it happens. Much like an Earthquake, the longer the time goes before the pressure on the system is relieved, the greater the damage will be when it breaks.
Roubini is one who believes the pressure of which I speak simply has to be relieved. I think he's right.
You can't get out of a hole by digging deeper.
Here's just one example of why we are totally f*cked. The gas and oil industry financed itself on junk bonds. The price of oil went down to the point the companies that sold the bonds couldn't turn a profit or pay back the bond holders. Rather than let the investors who made the bad decisions pay for their mistakes and lose money, the Federal Reserve comes to their rescue. The Fed did this to keep the investors from losing their money and to keep companies going ostensibly so supply wouldn't go down and create spikes in oil prices that would tank the economy. But if these companies continue producing, the price of oil isn't going to go down to make them enough money to ever get off the government tit.
The reality is, printing all the extra money will drive inflation and stop market forces from further pressurizing the fossil fuel energy sector to go to renewables, as the true cost of the oil and gas product is buried. So we not only are creating higher inflationary pressures by printing more money, we're also hiding the cost on the economy of fossil-fuel enabled climate change, while refusing to let investors lose.
You just can't continue trying to get out of financial and economic trouble by continuing to go further into debt. Eventually the cost has to be realized by the market. These oil and gas companies eventually have to take a big hit. It can't be put off forever, and the longer it takes, the worse it will be for them and the greater economy when it happens. Much like an Earthquake, the longer the time goes before the pressure on the system is relieved, the greater the damage will be when it breaks.
Roubini is one who believes the pressure of which I speak simply has to be relieved. I think he's right.