[Mick]

Then there is the "glass isn't half full or half empty; it's about to break" scenario, which is that the economic crisis leads to a political or international crisis: either our political system falls apart and morphs into a dictatorship or we get into a war with China.  These are tail-type events, but I think it is a fat tail.
BC

I think that's where we're headed.  The economy is going to tank much worse than most people think.  We've shipped our production to China, and I don't think we can get it back easily.  I don't think we have the means or wherewithal to get it back.  

I think war with China would be highly unlikely.  Both nations are too efficient at war.  Neither could realistically win what would necessarily be a global conflict.  And frankly, China (or at least the CCP) is an outlaw country/organization. They wouldn't abide by the Geneva convention, or any kind of rules governing conflict.  Atrocities, biological weapons, chemical weapons, cyberweapons; yes to all of the above.  Heck, this is a country that threatened to cut off our medicine during PEACETIME!  What do you think they would do during wartime?  Finally, they make everything we buy and need.  We'll complain and grouse, but we won't attack them.  In fact, if they attacked us, I genuinely think we'd be slow to respond.

Which brings us to the dictatorship scenario.  I could see it, particularly when 60 million hungry Americans without jobs and unable to pay the rent revolt.  Individuals, governments and corporations will all be swamped by debt.  The economy will be in the crapper.  The temptation to kill the debt and control the populace will manifest itself, and lots of the behaviors necessary to support and control the populace will lie outside of standard democratic legislative remedies.  I could definitely see more than the occasional national guard call up.  You already have an extraordinary wealth disparity, COVID-19 will only exacerbate it.  And that means dictatorship.

[Mick]

Then there is the "glass isn't half full or half empty; it's about to break" scenario, which is that the economic crisis leads to a political or international crisis: either our political system falls apart and morphs into a dictatorship or we get into a war with China.  These are tail-type events, but I think it is a fat tail.
BC

I think that's where we're headed.  The economy is going to tank much worse than most people think.  We've shipped our production to China, and I don't think we can get it back easily.  I don't think we have the means or wherewithal to get it back.  

I think war with China would be highly unlikely.  Both nations are too efficient at war.  Neither could realistically win what would necessarily be a global conflict.  And frankly, China (or at least the CCP) is an outlaw country/organization. They wouldn't abide by the Geneva convention, or any kind of rules governing conflict.  Atrocities, biological weapons, chemical weapons, cyberweapons; yes to all of the above.  Heck, this is a country that threatened to cut off our medicine during PEACETIME!  What do you think they would do during wartime?  Finally, they make everything we buy and need.  We'll complain and grouse, but we won't attack them.  In fact, if they attacked us, I genuinely think we'd be slow to respond.

Which brings us to the dictatorship scenario.  I could see it, particularly when 60 million hungry Americans without jobs and unable to pay the rent revolt.  Individuals, governments and corporations will all be swamped by debt.  The economy will be in the crapper.  The temptation to kill the debt and control the populace will manifest itself, and lots of the behaviors necessary to support and control the populace will lie outside of standard democratic legislative remedies.  I could definitely see more than the occasional national guard call up.  You already have an extraordinary wealth disparity, COVID-19 will only exacerbate it.  And that means dictatorship.