[Mick]

I think a lot of humility is necessary in trying to predict how things will shake out, particularly in the medium or long term. Pandemic flu and WWI killed many more than covid will, and younger working age folks too. The leading economies of the time were in tatters, and yet in the 20s the economies of the world powers reached new heights, though inequality worsened along with it.

Whether we end up in a depression or new economic heights is not preordained. The choices we and our leaders make will matter.

In the Great Depression, America's GDP sank 27% between 1929 and 1933.  Unemployment grew to 25.2% after four years of the Great Depression.  By 1939, 10 years after the depression started, unemployment was still 19.1%.  Prices fell nearly 25%, because no one could afford to spend anything.

So, it's not far off from where we are now, incidentally, after just nine weeks of layoffs.  Our GDP shrank 1.2% in the first quarter (-4.8% annualized), most estimates are in the -30% to -40% annualized rate for Q2.  We'll find out in early July.

You are technically correct.  Neither economic disaster nor dizzying heights are preordained.  But every single signal tells me we are in for a plunge much worse than the great depression.

[Mick]

I think a lot of humility is necessary in trying to predict how things will shake out, particularly in the medium or long term. Pandemic flu and WWI killed many more than covid will, and younger working age folks too. The leading economies of the time were in tatters, and yet in the 20s the economies of the world powers reached new heights, though inequality worsened along with it.

Whether we end up in a depression or new economic heights is not preordained. The choices we and our leaders make will matter.

In the Great Depression, America's GDP sank 27% between 1929 and 1933.  Unemployment grew to 25.2% after four years of the Great Depression.  By 1939, 10 years after the depression started, unemployment was still 19.1%.  Prices fell nearly 25%, because no one could afford to spend anything.

So, it's not far off from where we are now, incidentally, after just nine weeks of layoffs.  Our GDP shrank 1.2% in the first quarter (-4.8% annualized), most estimates are in the -30% to -40% annualized rate for Q2.  We'll find out in early July.

You are technically correct.  Neither economic disaster nor dizzying heights are preordained.  But every single signal tells me we are in for a plunge much worse than the great depression.