[Genuine Realist]

For my two cents, we should reopen entirely, with the regulatory environment . . .

I fear this would come at the expense of the health care system and especially health care workers, by reigniting exponential growth in infections in many areas, overwhelming local health care systems. The New York City experience should not be repeated anywhere. There are areas that are already at full capacity right now. I'd be more with you if we had adequate numbers of trained personnel and hospital resources, and more-than-adequate PPE for them, but I don't think we do in many places. I think mass indoor gatherings, and probably mass outdoor gatherings (shoulder to shoulder) without masks should continue to be prohibited until we see what happens with resumption of other economic activity. At a minimum if enough people don't participate in an activity in accordance with regulations, the activity should be prohibited. But in general I think you're right in that we don't really know what level of effectiveness will be achieved with the regulatory environment and the range of measures people will voluntarily take; it may be turn out to be a generally acceptable accommodation. But it is unclear what will happen if it doesn't!

I'm far more optimistic than you. I think the vast majority of the public, who really don't want to get sick, are going to take the same practical steps in place now to avoid infecting themselves. I think you are going to see cloth masks be nearly universal, not because the government tells people to do so, but because sensible people want to avoid infection. 

That's the story of Georgia and Florida, I believe. Some really dumb pundits in the MSM - I mean REALLY dumb - assumed because the States were opening up everyone would rush back to stadiums sitting knee to knee, and passing beer round. But of course they didn't. Georgian or Californian, nobody wants to end up under a ventilator. So there has been a spike - maybe, hard to tell with testing so much more available - but nothing like the predicted disaster.

There's a moral there.

[Genuine Realist]

For my two cents, we should reopen entirely, with the regulatory environment . . .

I fear this would come at the expense of the health care system and especially health care workers, by reigniting exponential growth in infections in many areas, overwhelming local health care systems. The New York City experience should not be repeated anywhere. There are areas that are already at full capacity right now. I'd be more with you if we had adequate numbers of trained personnel and hospital resources, and more-than-adequate PPE for them, but I don't think we do in many places. I think mass indoor gatherings, and probably mass outdoor gatherings (shoulder to shoulder) without masks should continue to be prohibited until we see what happens with resumption of other economic activity. At a minimum if enough people don't participate in an activity in accordance with regulations, the activity should be prohibited. But in general I think you're right in that we don't really know what level of effectiveness will be achieved with the regulatory environment and the range of measures people will voluntarily take; it may be turn out to be a generally acceptable accommodation. But it is unclear what will happen if it doesn't!

I'm far more optimistic than you. I think the vast majority of the public, who really don't want to get sick, are going to take the same practical steps in place now to avoid infecting themselves. I think you are going to see cloth masks be nearly universal, not because the government tells people to do so, but because sensible people want to avoid infection. 

That's the story of Georgia and Florida, I believe. Some really dumb pundits in the MSM - I mean REALLY dumb - assumed because the States were opening up everyone would rush back to stadiums sitting knee to knee, and passing beer round. But of course they didn't. Georgian or Californian, nobody wants to end up under a ventilator. So there has been a spike - maybe, hard to tell with testing so much more available - but nothing like the predicted disaster.

There's a moral there.