[Genuine Realist]

But I would back off the total shut down at this point.

As of May 20, every state that had imposed a lockdown or shelter in place order began lifting restrictions.  So what we are really talking about is whether the pace should be faster or slower.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us/...irus-trnd/

In favor of moving faster, cases and deaths have continued to decline despite states opening up.  There also doesn't seem to be much correlation between the pace of "déconfinement" (to use the French term) and declines in cases.  It has gone down sharply in states hardest hit (New York), and is going down slowly or is flat in most other states.

In favor of moving more slowly is the fact that there is a delay between any action and its effect on cases and deaths so if there is a spike in cases, you won't know which measure caused it.  Also, while cases are going down overall, most of that decline is driven by New York and other hard hit states; the states opening up are mostly flat.  I would prefer that if we are basically going to accept a steady state, that it was at a lower level.

But ultimately I agree with you, it will be behavior and not restrictions that drive the spread of the infection, and at this point our collective behavior seems adequate to keep the virus at a steady state.

BC

The bottom line to me is that this thing is going to be with us for quite a while, absent a miracle vaccine. Society is going to be transformed in all sorts of ways. So we might as well get the process going.

[Genuine Realist]

But I would back off the total shut down at this point.

As of May 20, every state that had imposed a lockdown or shelter in place order began lifting restrictions.  So what we are really talking about is whether the pace should be faster or slower.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us/...irus-trnd/

In favor of moving faster, cases and deaths have continued to decline despite states opening up.  There also doesn't seem to be much correlation between the pace of "déconfinement" (to use the French term) and declines in cases.  It has gone down sharply in states hardest hit (New York), and is going down slowly or is flat in most other states.

In favor of moving more slowly is the fact that there is a delay between any action and its effect on cases and deaths so if there is a spike in cases, you won't know which measure caused it.  Also, while cases are going down overall, most of that decline is driven by New York and other hard hit states; the states opening up are mostly flat.  I would prefer that if we are basically going to accept a steady state, that it was at a lower level.

But ultimately I agree with you, it will be behavior and not restrictions that drive the spread of the infection, and at this point our collective behavior seems adequate to keep the virus at a steady state.

BC

The bottom line to me is that this thing is going to be with us for quite a while, absent a miracle vaccine. Society is going to be transformed in all sorts of ways. So we might as well get the process going.