06-01-2020, 02:57 PM
(05-31-2020, 09:25 PM)Goose Wrote: That mostly works for me. However, I am greatly bothered that San Mateo County seems to have so many more "residual" cases than Santa Clara County, which is a significantly larger county that it is right next to. Can't be testing availability, as both use Stanford as the processing center. Also, the Northern California counties seem to be somewhat "stuck" at levels of illness higher than we see in Germany or Italy. Even New York seems to have behaved in a more "classical" manner. Once again, why? Whenever I see something that doesn't seem to fit what we have been led to expect, I worry that there is an undetected level of pathology hidden in the weeds.I have been a little frustrated at the lack of information and the inconsistency (for example, each county's dashboard, while appearing to use similar software, provides different bits of information in different ways), so it's sometimes hard to know what's going on.
I generally find the California DPH Dataset website to provide the most useful and consistent information. The SCC website warns there could be inaccuracies day-to-day from double-counting, but because the state dataset shows you historical data, you can better see historical trends.
https://data.chhs.ca.gov/dataset/califor...d656e1176e
Generally, the State data set has been showing *extremely positive hospitalization data* in SCC. From May 1, SCC went from 97 hospitalizations and 38 in the ICU, to 25 hospitalizations and 9 in the ICU (though with 31 fatalities). The hospitalizations have decreased even though restrictions have been loosened in many ways -- construction and more recreational activities were permitted several weeks ago.
So, I am still optimistic that the large increase in confirmed cases is due to catching more asymptomatic or mild cases, which we always knew were greatly under-counted. However, the state dataset shows 3 more fatalities today that have not yet been reflected on the SCC dashboard, social activities have been increasing lately, and it's still a little early to see any effect from hospitalizations from the least loosening, so, I'm anxious to see how the next 2 weeks play out.
But this Friday is 2 weeks since the last loosening, and if hospitalizations continue to decrease, I am hopeful there will be another round of loosening announced soon. In order to enjoy the relatively-safe outdoors during the summer, there needs to be some summer left to enjoy.
