Some schools re-opened and brought athletes back to campus like it's that easy -- all you have to do is re-open and wish really hard, and then what? Will the Covid-19 virus magically disappear because you want it to?
![[Image: 5BnaXKO.png]](https://i.imgur.com/5BnaXKO.png)
Before the protests, Covid-19 cases in Alabama were on an upward trajectory. Based on how it's going so far, there could be 3-6 times as many cases in Alabama when the season kicks off. By then, maybe 3-5% of the team, the student body, the people who work on campus, the people all around Tuscaloosa could be infectious. You can't keep a football team safe in that environment.
And no, just telling all the players to get sick now (or hinting that they should) is wrong in so many ways -- is our entertainment and money more important than their health and safety? Do we know they'll be immune? And if the case is mild, will they have enough antibodies to make it through a season? This is how the "let's all get Covid" plan works out for a football team -- they decide to all get sick -- some get sick, some don't. It keeps spreading for a month. By mid July, everyone is sick and may infect other people in the program, their families, their professors, their classmates, their community. And I hope all their coaches and trainers have hardy immune systems (Nick Saban is 68). Even if the case is mild, your whole team has at least a flu all training camp, and some of them have by far the worst flu of their lives. A few may have lifelong damage to their lungs. Most players are not doing anything for 2 weeks. They're weak for another 2 weeks after that. They're hacking up a terrible cough for another 2 weeks after that. So now it's October, they are 1-3 due to losses and forfeits, with their only win coming against the Trojans, with no conditioning, no weight training in 3 months, and no playbook.
Right now, normalizing for population sizes, there are 10x as many confirmed cases per day in Alabama than in Santa Clara County, it's rising rapidly in Alabama, and I trust SCC's numbers more because a bad day in SCC is when more than 1% of your tests (but still less than 2%) come back positive.
Is anyone surprised so many players tested positive? Does anyone think they can protect the team with such high numbers in Alabama, with cases growing?
I mean, I really hope they come up with some good therapeutics between now and September. I'm counting on it because I may need it when they re-open elementary schools in SCC.
But from what I can tell, I think it's just kind of weird how everything is progressing as if everything will magically be fine. If Alabama keeps plodding along its current course, it will eventually hit a NY-type of situation, it'll just happen more slowly, so fortunately, there will be time to change course. But given the trends, I don't see how Alabama plays a full season of football this fall, barring some kind of very positive development. *Maybe* if there is a major breakthrough in therapeutics we can just plod through it while minimizing the harm. But absent that -- with only say marginal improvements from therapeutics -- aren't states with rapidly rising cases headed toward another shutdown?
Before the protests, Covid-19 cases in Alabama were on an upward trajectory. Based on how it's going so far, there could be 3-6 times as many cases in Alabama when the season kicks off. By then, maybe 3-5% of the team, the student body, the people who work on campus, the people all around Tuscaloosa could be infectious. You can't keep a football team safe in that environment.
And no, just telling all the players to get sick now (or hinting that they should) is wrong in so many ways -- is our entertainment and money more important than their health and safety? Do we know they'll be immune? And if the case is mild, will they have enough antibodies to make it through a season? This is how the "let's all get Covid" plan works out for a football team -- they decide to all get sick -- some get sick, some don't. It keeps spreading for a month. By mid July, everyone is sick and may infect other people in the program, their families, their professors, their classmates, their community. And I hope all their coaches and trainers have hardy immune systems (Nick Saban is 68). Even if the case is mild, your whole team has at least a flu all training camp, and some of them have by far the worst flu of their lives. A few may have lifelong damage to their lungs. Most players are not doing anything for 2 weeks. They're weak for another 2 weeks after that. They're hacking up a terrible cough for another 2 weeks after that. So now it's October, they are 1-3 due to losses and forfeits, with their only win coming against the Trojans, with no conditioning, no weight training in 3 months, and no playbook.
Right now, normalizing for population sizes, there are 10x as many confirmed cases per day in Alabama than in Santa Clara County, it's rising rapidly in Alabama, and I trust SCC's numbers more because a bad day in SCC is when more than 1% of your tests (but still less than 2%) come back positive.
Is anyone surprised so many players tested positive? Does anyone think they can protect the team with such high numbers in Alabama, with cases growing?
I mean, I really hope they come up with some good therapeutics between now and September. I'm counting on it because I may need it when they re-open elementary schools in SCC.
But from what I can tell, I think it's just kind of weird how everything is progressing as if everything will magically be fine. If Alabama keeps plodding along its current course, it will eventually hit a NY-type of situation, it'll just happen more slowly, so fortunately, there will be time to change course. But given the trends, I don't see how Alabama plays a full season of football this fall, barring some kind of very positive development. *Maybe* if there is a major breakthrough in therapeutics we can just plod through it while minimizing the harm. But absent that -- with only say marginal improvements from therapeutics -- aren't states with rapidly rising cases headed toward another shutdown?