[2006alum]

From the department of deeply confusing explanations, this might account for why today's numbers don't seem to match the on the ground reality:

The official unemployment rate rose from 3.5 percent in February to 13.3 percent in May (down from its value in April). Even this very large official increase understates the increase in the unemployment rate from a historically-comparable perspective because it counts an extra 4.9 million people who were “not at work for other reasons” as employed and also because 6.3 million people left the labor force since February, more than would be expected even conditional on this large increase in unemployment. Adjusting for these factors our “realistic unemployment rate” was 17.1 percent in May, down from the April value but still higher than any other unemployment rate in over 70 years.

In total, an additional 14.5 million of the unemployed reported being on temporary layoff. If all of these people were immediately recalled back to work and the labor force adjusted accordingly—a very optimistic scenario—the “full recall unemployment rate” would still be a very elevated 7.1 percent. These data suggest the temporary labor market problems are very deep and that even if individuals on temporary layoff returned to work very quickly the United States would still have a recessionary level of unemployment for some time to come.

The irony, of course, is this comes from the same guy that was being pilloried for saying that Trump will be able to report extremely positive employment and economic numbers because we're likely to have a swift economic recovery: Jason Furman.

[2006alum]

From the department of deeply confusing explanations, this might account for why today's numbers don't seem to match the on the ground reality:

The official unemployment rate rose from 3.5 percent in February to 13.3 percent in May (down from its value in April). Even this very large official increase understates the increase in the unemployment rate from a historically-comparable perspective because it counts an extra 4.9 million people who were “not at work for other reasons” as employed and also because 6.3 million people left the labor force since February, more than would be expected even conditional on this large increase in unemployment. Adjusting for these factors our “realistic unemployment rate” was 17.1 percent in May, down from the April value but still higher than any other unemployment rate in over 70 years.

In total, an additional 14.5 million of the unemployed reported being on temporary layoff. If all of these people were immediately recalled back to work and the labor force adjusted accordingly—a very optimistic scenario—the “full recall unemployment rate” would still be a very elevated 7.1 percent. These data suggest the temporary labor market problems are very deep and that even if individuals on temporary layoff returned to work very quickly the United States would still have a recessionary level of unemployment for some time to come.

The irony, of course, is this comes from the same guy that was being pilloried for saying that Trump will be able to report extremely positive employment and economic numbers because we're likely to have a swift economic recovery: Jason Furman.