[BostonCard]

After an exodus in April, the labor force in May increased by 1.75 million, pushing the participation rate to 60.8% from 60.2% in April. The total employment level as measured by the survey of households rose by 3.84 million while those who reported being unemployed plunged by 2.1 million, though it was still elevated at 21 million.

From the CNBC link.  The increase in the labor force doesn't totally undercut Furman's argument (since there was a massive decline in the labor force in April), but it does mean that the change in unemployment rate from April to May did not occur because people gave up and left the labor force entirely.

We're not going to go back to the "before times" where the unemployment rate was under 5%.  We may also see a lot of noise (and revisions) to the data, including possibly a month or two where things look to get worse.  But I am much more hopeful than a few weeks ago that we will not get to 20% unemployment, and that the employment level when things settle down will be higher than I was afraid it might be.  The GDP hit for the second quarter (April - June) may also be less dramatic than we were afraid of.

BC

[BostonCard]

After an exodus in April, the labor force in May increased by 1.75 million, pushing the participation rate to 60.8% from 60.2% in April. The total employment level as measured by the survey of households rose by 3.84 million while those who reported being unemployed plunged by 2.1 million, though it was still elevated at 21 million.

From the CNBC link.  The increase in the labor force doesn't totally undercut Furman's argument (since there was a massive decline in the labor force in April), but it does mean that the change in unemployment rate from April to May did not occur because people gave up and left the labor force entirely.

We're not going to go back to the "before times" where the unemployment rate was under 5%.  We may also see a lot of noise (and revisions) to the data, including possibly a month or two where things look to get worse.  But I am much more hopeful than a few weeks ago that we will not get to 20% unemployment, and that the employment level when things settle down will be higher than I was afraid it might be.  The GDP hit for the second quarter (April - June) may also be less dramatic than we were afraid of.

BC